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MARKET INCENTIVES FOR SAFE COMMERCIAL AIRLINE OPERATION

American Economic Review 1988
Airlines are insured against most direct costs of an accident, but they cannot insure against demand loss. Some have argued that such consumer reaction will discipline unsafe operations. The authors' estimation of deviations from expected demand following accidents finds little or no effect prior to airline deregulation and weak indication of a response to recent crashes. These results are consistent with the changes the authors find in an airline's equity value following an accident, which are statistically significant, but quite small relative to the total social cost of the accident.

Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market

American Economic Review 2002 92(5), 1376-1405 open access
We present a method for decomposing wholesale electricity payments into production costs, inframarginal competitive rents, and payments resulting from the exercise of market power. Using data from June 1998 to October 2000 in California, we find significant departures from competitive pricing during the high-demand summer months and near-competitive pricing during the lower-demand months of the first two years. In summer 2000, wholesale electricity expenditures were $8.98 billion up from $2.04 billion in summer 1999. We find that 21 percent of this increase was due to production costs, 20 percent to competitive rents, and 59 percent to market power.

Expecting the Unexpected: Emissions Uncertainty and Environmental Market Design

American Economic Review 2019 109(11), 3953-3977 open access
We study potential equilibria in California’s cap-and-trade market for greenhouse gases (GHGs) based on information available before the market started. We find large ex ante uncertainty in business-as-usual emissions and in the abatement that might result from non-market policies, much larger than the reduction that could plausibly occur in response to an allowance price within a politically acceptable range. This implies that the market price is very likely to be determined by an administrative price floor or ceiling. Similar factors seem likely to be present in other cap-and-trade markets for GHGs.