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Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market

American Economic Review 1997 87(3), 255-269
Evidence from the Boston condominium market of the early 1990's reveals that an owner's equity position determines his experience as a seller. An owner of a property with a high loan-to-value ratio sets a higher asking price, has a higher expected time on the market and, if he sells, receives a higher price than an owner with proportionately less debt. The down payment requirement for purchasers, but not incumbent owners, provides a simple explanation for this phenomenon among owner-occupants. The results provide supporting evidence for equity-based aggregate theories of price-volume movements in the housing market.

Network Effects, Congestion Externalities, and Air Traffic Delays: Or Why Not All Delays Are Evil

American Economic Review 2003 93(4), 1194-1215 open access
We examine two factors that explain air traffic congestion: network benefits due to hubbing and congestion externalities. While both factors impact congestion, we find that the hubbing effect dominates empirically. Hub carriers incur most of the additional travel time from hubbing, primarily because they cluster their flights in short time spans to provide passengers as many potential connections as possible with a minimum of waiting time. Non-hub flights at the same hub airports operate with minimal additional travel time. These results suggest that an optimal congestion tax might have a relatively small impact on flight patterns at hub airports.

Mortgage Modification and Strategic Behavior: Evidence from a Legal Settlement with Countrywide

American Economic Review 2014 104(9), 2830-2857 open access
We investigate whether homeowners respond strategically to news of mortgage modification programs. We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in modification policy induced by settlement of US state government lawsuits against Countrywide Financial Corporation, which agreed to offer modifications to seriously delinquent borrowers. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we find that Countrywide's monthly delinquency rate increased more than 0.54 percentage points—a 10 percent relative increase—immediately after the settlement's announcement. The estimated increase in default rates is largest among borrowers least likely to default otherwise. These results suggest that strategic behavior should be an important consideration in designing mortgage modification programs.