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Can We Control Carbon Dioxide? (from 1975)

American Economic Review 2019 109(6), 2015-2035 open access
In recent years, the concern about the tradeoffs between economic growth and environmental quality have been paramount. To a large extent, the energy sector has been the locus of the major battles. For the most part, the concerns have been with local environmental problems such as disputes over air and water quality, nuclear accidents, and radioactive wastes. Although these problems have not been solved, it appears that as a result of considerable technical work that techniques exist (even if political will does not) to reduce most local environmental problems to a tolerable level. There remain on the agenda, however, a number of global environmental problems, and again these relate mainly to the energy sector. In particular, it appears that emissions of carbon dioxide particulate matter, and waste heat may, at some time in the future, lead to significant climatic modifications. Of these, it appears that carbon dioxide will probably be the first man-made emission to affect climate on a global scale, with a significant temperature increase by the end of the century.

Elite Colleges and Upward Mobility to Top Jobs and Top Incomes

American Economic Review 2019 109(1), 1-47 open access
This paper asks whether elite colleges help students outside of historically advantaged groups reach top positions in the economy. I combine administrative data on income and leadership teams at publicly traded firms with a regression discontinuity design based on admissions rules at elite business-focused degree programs in Chile. The 1.8 percent of college students admitted to these programs account for 41 percent of leadership positions and 39 percent of top 0.1 percent incomes. Admission raises the number of leadership positions students hold by 44 percent and their probability of attaining a top 0.1 percent income by 51 percent. However, these gains are driven by male applicants from high-tuition private high schools, with zero effects for female students or students from other school types with similar admissions test scores. Admissions effects are equal to 38 percent of the gap in rates of top attainment by gender and 54 percent of the gap by high school background for male students. A difference-in-differences analysis of the rates at which pairs of students lead the same firms suggests that peer ties formed between college classmates from similar backgrounds may play an important role in driving the observed effects.

Incentives and the Supply of Effective Charter Schools

American Economic Review 2019 109(7), 2568-2612 open access
Charter school funding is typically set by formulas that provide the same amount for students regardless of advantage or need. I present evidence that this policy skews the distribution of students served by charters toward low-cost populations by influencing where charter schools open and whether they survive. To do this, I develop and estimate an equilibrium model of charter school supply and competition to evaluate the effects of funding policies that aim to correct these incentives. The results indicate that a cost-adjusted funding formula would increase the share of disadvantaged students in charter schools with little reduction in aggregate effectiveness.

Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks

American Economic Review 2019 109(5), 1873-1910
Traditional approaches to structural vector autoregressions (VARs) can be viewed as special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs. These methods can be generalized with a less restrictive formulation that incorporates uncertainty about the identifying assumptions themselves. We use this approach to revisit the importance of shocks to oil supply and demand. Supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements and inventory accumulation a smaller factor than implied by earlier estimates. Supply shocks lead to a reduction in global economic activity after a significant lag, whereas shocks to oil demand do not.

Incentivized Resume Rating: Eliciting Employer Preferences without Deception

American Economic Review 2019 109(11), 3713-3744
We introduce a new experimental paradigm to evaluate employer preferences, called incentivized resume rating (IRR). Employers evaluate resumes they know to be hypothetical in order to be matched with real job seekers, preserving incentives while avoiding the deception necessary in audit studies. We deploy IRR with employers recruiting college seniors from a prestigious school, randomizing human capital characteristics and demographics of hypothetical candidates. We measure both employer preferences for candidates and employer beliefs about the likelihood that candidates will accept job offers, avoiding a typical confound in audit studies. We discuss the costs, benefits, and future applications of this new methodology.

Unity in Diversity? How Intergroup Contact Can Foster Nation Building

American Economic Review 2019 109(11), 3978-4025 open access
We use a population resettlement program in Indonesia to identify long-run effects of intergroup contact on national integration. In the 1980s, the government relocated two million ethnically diverse migrants into hundreds of new communities. We find greater integration in fractionalized communities with many small groups, as measured by national language use at home, intermarriage, and children’s name choices. However, in polarized communities with a few large groups, ethnic attachment increases and integration declines. Residential segregation dampens these effects. Social capital, public goods, and ethnic conflict follow similar patterns. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of localized contact in shaping identity.