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Why Don't Present-Biased Agents Make Commitments?

American Economic Review 2015 105(5), 267-272 open access
Present-biased preferences engender a demand for commitment. Commitment is a problematic prediction, since we see so little of it. I quantitatively explore the reasons for the “missing” commitment. Extending the procrastination model in Carroll et al. (2009), I show how equilibrium commitment is related to (i) the standard deviation of the opportunity cost of time, (ii) the cost of delay, (iii) the degree of partial naivete, and (iv) the direct cost of commitment. The calibrated model demonstrates that the perceived benefits of commitment are often overwhelmed by the costs of commitment. Demand for commitment is a special case rather than the general case.

A Boundedly Rational Decision Algorithm

American Economic Review 2000 90(2), 433-438
Cognition requires scarce inputs, including time and concentration. Since cognition is costly, sophisticated decision-makers should use mental shortcuts, or heuristics, to reduce cognitive burdens. A model is proposed and tested that is motivated by these principles. It is believed this model achieves four goals. First, the model makes quantitative behavioral predictions and, hence, provides a precise alternative to the rational-actor hypothesis. Second, the model is psychologically plausible because it is based on the actual decisions algorithms that subjects claim to use. Third, the model is empirically testable; such a test is provided in this paper. Fourth, the model is broadly applicable, because it can be used to analyze decision problems that can be represented in tree form.

Principles of (Behavioral) Economics

American Economic Review 2015 105(5), 385-390 open access
Behavioral economics has become an important and integrated component of modern economics. Behavioral economists embrace the core principles of economics—optimization and equilibrium—and seek to develop and extend those ideas to make them more empirically accurate. Behavioral models assume that economic actors try to pick the best feasible option and those actors sometimes make mistakes. Behavioral ideas should be incorporated throughout the first-year undergraduate course. Instructors should also considering allocating a lecture (or more) to a focused discussion of behavioral concepts. We describe our approach to such a lecture, highlighting six modular principles and empirical examples that support them.

Equalizing Superstars: The Internet and the Democratization of Education

American Economic Review 2014 104(5), 523-527
Internet-based educational resources are proliferating rapidly. One concern associated with these (potentially transformative) technological changes is that they will be disequalizing—as many technologies of the last several decades have been—creating superstar teachers and a winner-take-all education system. These important concerns notwithstanding, we contend that a major impact of web-based educational technologies will be the democratization of education: educational resources will be more equally distributed, and lower-skilled teachers will benefit. At the root of our results is the observation that skilled lecturers can only exploit their comparative advantage if other teachers complement those lectures with face-to-face instruction. This complementarity will increase the quantity and quality of face-to-face teaching services, potentially increasing the marginal product and wages of lower-skill teachers.

Mental Accounting in Portfolio Choice: Evidence from a Flypaper Effect

American Economic Review 2009 99(5), 2085-2095 open access
Consistent with mental accounting, we document that investors sometimes choose the asset allocation for one account without considering the asset allocation of their other accounts. The setting is a firm that changed its 401(k) matching rules. Initially, 401(k) enrollees chose the allocation of their own contributions, but the firm chose the match allocation. These enrollees ignored the match allocation when choosing their own-contribution allocation. In the second regime, enrollees simultaneously selected both accounts' allocations, leading them to mentally integrate the two. Own-contribution allocations before the rule change equal the combined own- and match-contribution allocations afterwards, whereas combined allocations differ sharply across regimes.

Costly Information Acquisition: Experimental Analysis of a Boundedly Rational Model

American Economic Review 2006 open access
The directed cognition model assumes that agents use partially myopic option-value calculations to select their next cognitive operation. The current paper tests this model by studying information acquisition in two experiments. In the first experiment, information acquisition has an explicit financial cost. In the second experiment, information acquisition is costly because time is scarce. The directed cognition model successfully predicts aggregate information acquisition patterns in these experiments. When the directed cognition model and the fully rational model make demonstrably different predictions, the directed cognition model better matches the laboratory evidence.

Costly Information Acquisition: Experimental Analysis of a Boundedly Rational Model

American Economic Review 2006 96(4), 1043-1068
The directed cognition model assumes that agents use partially myopic option-value calculations to select their next cognitive operation. The current paper tests this model by studying information acquisition in two experiments. In the first experiment, information acquisition has an explicit financial cost. In the second experiment, information acquisition is costly because time is scarce. The directed cognition model successfully predicts aggregate information acquisition patterns in these experiments. When the directed cognition model and the fully rational model make demonstrably different predictions, the directed cognition model better matches the laboratory evidence.

Liquidity in Retirement Savings Systems: An International Comparison

American Economic Review 2015 105(5), 420-425 open access
We compare the liquidity that six developed countries have built into their employer-based defined contribution (DC) retirement schemes. In Germany, Singapore, and the UK, withdrawals are essentially banned no matter what kind of transitory income shock the household realizes. By contrast, in Canada and Australia, liquidity is state-contingent. For a middle-income household, DC accounts are completely illiquid unless annual income falls substantially, in which case DC assets become highly liquid. The US stands alone in the universally high liquidity of its DC system: whether or not income falls, the penalties for early withdrawal are low or non-existent.

What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

American Economic Review 2013 103(3), 570-574 open access
Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial mean reversion. Half of the subjects see a version of this process in which the momentum and partial mean reversion unfold over 10 periods ('fast'), while the other subjects see a version with dynamics that unfold over 50 periods ('slow'). Typical subjects recognize most of the mean reversion of the fast process and none of the mean reversion of the slow process.