This paper shows that smoking intensity, i.e. the amount of nicotine extracted per cigarette smoked, responds to changes in excise taxes and tobacco prices. We exploit NHANES data covering the period 1988 to 2006 across many US states. Moreover, using panel data from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study, we provide new evidence on the importance of cotinine measures in explaining long-run smoking behavior. We show the importance of smoking intensity as a long-run determinant of smoking cessation. We also investigate the sensitivity of smoking cessation to changes in excise taxes and their interaction with smoking intensity.

This paper analyses the compensatory behavior of smokers. Exploiting data on cotinine concentration - a metabolite of nicotine - measured in a large population of smokers over time, we show that smokers compensate tax hikes by extracting more nicotine per cigarette. Our study makes two important contributions. First, as smoking more intensively a given cigarette is detrimental to health, our results question the usefulness of tax increases. Second, we develop a model of rational addiction where agents can also adjust their intensity of smoking and we show that the previous empirical results suffer from severe estimation biases.

This paper analyses the compensatory behavior of smokers. Exploiting data on cotinine concentration--a metabolite of nicotine--measured in a large population of smokers over time, we show that smokers compensate for tax hikes by extracting more nicotine per cigarette. Our study makes two important contributions. First, as smoking a given cigarette more intensively is detrimental to health, our results question the usefulness of tax increases. Second, we develop a model of rational addiction where agents can also adjust their intensity of smoking, and we show that the previous empirical results suffer from estimation biases.