International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination When Policymakers Do Not Agree on the True Model
When international policymakers do not agree on the correct macroeconomic model, they will still be able to agree on a cooperative policy package that each believes will improve welfare; but the package may turn out to move the target variables in the wrong direction. Using ten leading econometric models that could represent U.S. beliefs, non-U.S. beliefs, and the true model, we find that monetary coordination improves U.S. welfare in only 546 cases out of 1,000.