The Effects of Fiscal Policies When Incomes Are Uncertain: A Contradiction to Ricardian Equivalence
This paper shows that when earnings are uncertain the substitution of deficit finance for tax finance or the introduction of an unfunded Social Security program will raise consumption even if all bequests reflect intergenerational altruism. Thus, contrary to the theory developed by a number of writers, an operative bequest motive need not imply Ricardian equivalence. Since there is no uncertainty in the present analysis about the date of each individual's death, this conclusion does not depend on imperfections in annuity markets or on the existence of nonlump-sum taxes or other distortions. Rather it follows from the result derived below that, when future earnings are uncertain, bequests are uncertain and that consumption therefore rises more in response to an increase in current disposable income than to an equal present value increase in the disposable income of the next generation.