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One Size Fits All? Heckscher-Ohlin Specialization in Global Production

American Economic Review 2003 93(3), 686-708
This paper introduces a new technique for testing the Heckscher-Ohlin model that allows for the possibility that countries with sufficiently disparate endowments specialize in unique subsets of goods. Results based upon industry-level data reject one-size-fits-all homogeneity in favor of Heckscher-Ohlin specialization. Results also reveal that industry-level data hide substantial intra-industry heterogeneity, violating the assumptions of the model and complicating the interpretation of results from earlier research. A methodology for adjusting industry output to reflect underlying product variation is introduced. Reestimation of the model using adjusted aggregates in place of standard industry classifications provides strong support for Heckscher-Ohlin specialization.

The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment

American Economic Review 2016 106(7), 1632-1662
This paper links the sharp drop in US manufacturing employment after 2000 to a change in US trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries more exposed to the change experience greater employment loss, increased imports from China, and higher entry by US importers and foreign-owned Chinese exporters. At the plant level, shifts toward less labor-intensive production and exposure to the policy via input-output linkages also contribute to the decline in employment. Results are robust to other potential explanations of employment loss, and there is no similar reaction in the European Union, where policy did not change.

Trade Liberalization and Embedded Institutional Reform: Evidence from Chinese Exporters

American Economic Review 2013 103(6), 2169-2195
If trade barriers are managed by inefficient institutions, trade liberalization can lead to greater-than-expected gains. We examine Chinese textile and clothing exports before and after the elimination of externally imposed export quotas. Both the surge in export volume and the decline in export prices following quota removal are driven by net entry. This outcome is inconsistent with a model in which quotas are allocated based on firm productivity, implying misallocation of resources. Removing this misallocation accounts for a substantial share of the overall gain in productivity associated with quota removal.

Multiple-Product Firms and Product Switching

American Economic Review 2010 100(1), 70-97 open access
This paper examines the frequency, pervasiveness, and determinants of product switching by US manufacturing firms. We find that one-half of firms alter their mix of five-digit SIC products every five years, that product switching is correlated with both firm- and firm-product attributes, and that product adding and dropping induce large changes in firm scope. The behavior we observe is consistent with a natural generalization of existing theories of industry dynamics that incorporates endogenous product selection within firms. Our findings suggest that product switching contributes to a reallocation of resources within firms toward their most efficient use.

The Margins of US Trade

American Economic Review 2009 99(2), 487-493 open access
Recent research in international trade emphasizes the importance of firms’ extensive margins for understanding overall patterns of trade as well as how firms respond to specific events such as trade liberalization. In this paper, we use detailed U.S. trade statistics to provide a broad overview of how the margins of trade contribute to variation in U.S. imports and exports across trading partners, types of trade (i.e. arm’s-length versus related-party) and both short and long time horizons. Among other results, we highlight the differential behaviour of related-party and arm’s-length trade in response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.