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Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets

American Economic Review 1998 88(4), 724-748
We study the relationship between asset prices and herd behavior, which occurs when traders follow the trend in past trades. When traders have private information on only a single dimension of uncertainty (the effect of a shock to the asset value), price adjustments prevent herd behavior. Herding arises when there are two dimensions of uncertainty (the existence and effect of a shock), but it need not distort prices because the market discounts the informativeness of trades during herding. With a third dimension of uncertainty (the quality of traders' information), herd behavior can lead to a significant, short-run mispricing.

Mentoring and Diversity

American Economic Review 2000 90(4), 765-786 open access
We study how diversity evolves at a firm with entry-level and upper-level employees who vary in ability and “type” (gender or ethnicity). The ability of entry-level employees is increased by mentoring. An employee receives more mentoring when more upper-level employees have the same type. Optimal promotions are biased by type, and this bias may favor either the minority or the majority. We characterize possible steady states, including a “glass ceiling,” where the upper level remains less diverse than the entry level. A firm may have multiple steady states, whereby temporary affirmative-action policies have a long-run impact.