We are in the midst of a structural boom the force of which has not been seen in this country since the 1920’s. After the U.S. unemployment rate hit 6 percent in late 1994, following its two-year recovery, many experts assumed that unemployment had regained its naturalrate path. The natural unemployment rate in the second half of the 1980’s had been put at around 6.5 percent in several estimates, and if the trend reduction in the natural rate brought about by the continuing relative decline of high-school dropouts in the labor force and those whose education stopped at the diploma is placed at 0.07 per annum, it would have declined on that account to around 6 percent by 1995 (Phelps and Gylfi Zoega, 1997). Furthermore, we saw in 1995 the end of

The soft budget constraint is a syndrome that was identified and studied by Janos Kornai in his analysis of centrally planned economies ( see, Kornai, 1980 ) . The syndrome is said to arise when a seemingly unprofitable enterprise is bailed out by the government or the enterprise’s creditors. In other words, the enterprise is not held to a fixed budget, but finds its budget constraint ‘‘softened’’ by the infusion of additional credit when it is on the verge of failure. Kornai viewed the soft budget constraint as a crucial ingredient for explaining the salient features of socialist economic performance, in particular, the pervasiveness of shortages. One interesting puzzle is why centrally planned economies have been particularly susceptible to the influence of the soft budget constraint; the capitalist world is hardly immune, as the recent financial crisis in Asia attests, but on the whole it has proved less vulnerable. Indeed, the very origin of the soft budget constraint and the mechanism by which it gives rise to shortages and other undesirable effects are also obviously important questions. Although Kornai’s work has long been well known and appreciated, answers to these associated theoretical questions have been hazarded only recently. In Maskin ( 1996 ) , I surveyed some of the initial efforts in this direction, including Mathias Dewatripont and Maskin (1995), which argues that centralization of credit can give rise to soft budget constraints because it facilitates the refinancing of

A central implication of the life-cycle (or permanent-income) theory is that consumption should not respond to predictable fluctuations in income. Tests of this implication have yielded mixed results, especially on micro data (Angus Deaton, 1992; Martin Browning and Annamaria Lusardi, 1996). In large part this might be due to the difficulties of isolating the predictable component of income at the micro level. Most tests proceed by instrumenting for income, but since the available instruments are typically poor, such tests might be prejudiced against finding significant excess sensitivity of consumption to income (John Shea, 1995).' Also, it is not clear how closely the resulting econometric predictions of income coincide with agents' actual expectations of income. To avoid these difficulties this paper examines the response of household consumption to a particular type of income that is both predictable and transitory-income tax refunds. Since a refund depends on events in the previous calendar year, it is predictable income as regards consumption in the year of its receipt. Consequently, under the life-cycle theory consumption should not increase on receipt of a refund.2 In addition to testing the canonical model of consumption, this paper provides estimates interpretable as the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of refunds. Since federal tax refunds now amount to over $80 billion per year (averaging well over $1,000 per refund), these estimates are of interest in themselves. More generally they bear on the impact of even preannounced and temporary changes in fiscal policy. The paper begins by surveying related studies in Section I. Section II describes the data, the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX), which of the leading U.S. micro data sets has the most comprehensive coverage of expenditure. The empirical specification is set out in Section HI. Section IV reports the results, and Section V concludes.

Portfolio Choices of Parents and Their Children as Young Adults: Asset Accumulation by African-American Families by Ngina S. Chiteji and Frank P. Stafford. Published in volume 89, issue 2, pages 377-380 of American Economic Review, May 1999

A surprisingly large amount of otherregarding behavior is the common finding of experiments on bargaining, public goods, and trust. Elizabeth Hoffman et al. ( hereafter, HMS ) ( 1996 ) have provided an insightful analysis of why experimental results deviate from game theoretic predictions in dictator games. The authors conclude that individuals’ dispositional knowledge about social norms and reciprocity is activated by decreasing social distance even though the dictator game explicitly excludes reciprocal sanctioning possibilities by experimental design. We challenge this conclusion. While HMS (p. 654) define social distance to be ‘‘the degree of reciprocity that subjects believe exist within a social interaction,’’ we argue that social distance influences otherregardedness independent of any norms of social exchange. When social distance decreases, the ‘‘other’’ is no longer some unknown individual from some anonymous crowd but becomes an ‘‘identifiable victim’’ (Thomas C. Schelling 1968). In order to discriminate between reciprocity-based and identifiabilitybased other-regardedness, we also used the dictator game and varied the degree of social distance. An anonymous treatment is com-

This paper examines the relationship between population and economic growth. It analyzes the implications of the effects of higher population density on per capita incomes and other variables in different countries and other geographic regions. Several statistical models that interpolate population to cities investment in human capital and economic growth were utilized to help analyze population growth. Generally economists along with others have believed that higher population lowers per capita incomes by diminishing returns. On the contrary there are few proofs demonstrating that higher population in more developed economies reduce per capita incomes. Population may reduce productivity secondary to traditional diminishing returns from more intensive use of land and other natural resources. However large populations encourage greater specialization and increased investments in knowledge. Therefore the net relation between greater population and per capita incomes relies on whether the inducements to human capital and expansion of knowledge are stronger than diminishing returns to natural resources.

Scale economies and agglomeration externalities are alleged to be important determinants of economic growth. To assess these effects, we outline and estimate a microfoundations model based on a dynamic cost function specification. This model provides for the separate identification of the impacts of externalities and cyclical utilization on short- and long-run scale economies and input substitution patterns. We find that scale economies are prevalent in U.S. manufacturing, cost savings and scale effects often attributed to internal inputs may be due to external factors, and supply-side agglomeration effects are greater than demand-side, especially in the long run.

New Evidence on the Money's Worth of Individual Annuities by Olivia S. Mitchell, James M. Poterba, Mark J. Warshawsky and Jeffrey R. Brown. Published in volume 89, issue 5, pages 1299-1318 of American Economic Review, December 1999