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The Effect of Risk Factor Disclosures on the Pricing of Credit Default Swaps

Contemporary Accounting Research 2018 35(4), 2191-2224
This study examines the relation between narrative risk disclosures in mandatory reports and the pricing of credit risk. In particular, we investigate whether and how the Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) mandate of risk factor disclosures ( RFD s) affects credit default swap ( CDS ) spreads. Based on the theory of Duffie and Lando (2001), we predict and find that CDS spreads decrease significantly after RFD s are made available in 10‐K/10‐Q filings. These results suggest that RFD s improve information transparency about the firm's underlying risk, thereby reducing the information risk premium in CDS spreads. The content analysis further reveals that disclosures pertinent to financial and idiosyncratic risk are especially relevant to credit investors. In cross‐sectional analyses, we document that RFD s are more useful for evaluating the business prospects and default risk of firms with greater information uncertainty/asymmetry. Overall, our findings imply that the SEC requirement for adding a risk factor section to periodic reports enhances the transparency of firm risk and facilitates credit investors in evaluating the credit quality of the firm

The Disciplining Effect of Credit Default Swap Trading on the Quality of Credit Rating Agencies

Contemporary Accounting Research 2022 39(2), 1297-1333
This study examines whether credit default swap (CDS) trading initiation can serve as a disciplining mechanism for leading credit rating agencies. Specifically, we investigate whether rating agencies improve their rating quality when an alternative source of credit risk information from CDS threatens to expose inaccuracies in their ratings. Understanding potential drivers of credit rating quality is important given the prominence of credit rating agencies as debt market gatekeepers and perceptions that the agencies have underperformed in providing high‐quality credit risk assessments in recent decades. We hypothesize and find that the initiation of CDS trading improves the accuracy of issuer‐paid credit ratings. This evidence is robust to a number of sensitivity tests including alternative ways of measuring rating accuracy and correction for selection bias. We also find that the timeliness of credit ratings, watch list, and outlook placements improves post‐initiation—particularly for negative shocks to credit risk. This study contributes to the credit rating literature by documenting that CDS trading can help discipline rating agencies. It also contributes to the literature studying the implications of the CDS market

Is the Tone of Risk Disclosures in MD&As Relevant to Debt Markets? Evidence from the Pricing of Credit Default Swaps

Contemporary Accounting Research 2021 38(2), 1465-1501
This paper examines whether the tone of corporate textual disclosures related to risk and uncertainty conveys relevant information to the credit default swap (CDS) market. Prior studies largely focus on the amount of risk disclosures and provide inconclusive evidence on the usefulness of risk disclosures for investors in assessing firm risk. Using a large sample of textual risk disclosures in the Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) section of 10‐K and 10‐Q filings, I predict and find that the change in CDS spreads over the three‐day window surrounding the 10‐K/Q filing date is positively associated with the pessimism of the language used in the risk disclosures. I conduct several analyses to show that the effect of the tone of risk disclosures is distinguishable from that of the amount of such disclosures. Cross‐sectional analyses reveal that the CDS market reaction to the tone of MD&A risk disclosures is more pronounced for reference entities closer to default, consistent with creditors' particular concern about downside risk. Further, the CDS market reacts more significantly to the tone of MD&A risk disclosures for reference entities with a weaker information environment. Overall, these results support the view that the tone of textual risk disclosures in MD&As has information content for investors in the CDS market in particular and debt markets in general. My findings improve the understanding of textual risk disclosures by showing that the tone and the amount of such disclosures have different implications for debt market investors' risk perceptions