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A comparative examination of the time‐series properties and predictive ability of annual historical cost and general price level adjusted earnings*

Contemporary Accounting Research 1988 4(2), 485-507
Abstract. This empirical study is a response to the FASB's call for further research into the properties of alternative accounting measurement methods. There exists no empirical evidence on the time‐series properties and predictability of general price level (GPL)‐adjusted annual earnings data. In order to assess the effect of the monetary gains or losses on the stochastic properties of GPL‐adjusted data, earnings were calculated both with and without inclusion of the monetary gains or losses. The results of the time‐series analysis of the earnings series across the alternative accounting methods indicated that (a) just under one‐half of the historical cost (HC) series followed a random‐walk‐type process with most of the remainder being autoregressive, and (b) the GPL series showed substantially fewer following a random walk process with a corresponding increase in the number of stationary series (modeled as autoregressive or white noise processes). The predictive ability results were consistent with the time series findings. That is, application of a random‐walk model to the HC series indicated that these series were fairly well‐represented by the random walk, but a similar application to the GPL series confirmed that these series were not as well‐represented by a random walk. Résumé. L'étude empirique qui fait l'objet du présent article a été effectuée en réponse à l'invitation du FASB à poursuivre les recherches sur les attributs des méthodes de mesure comptable de rechange. Il n'existe aucune démonstration empirique des attributs des séries chronologiques et de la valeur prédictive des données relatives aux bénéfices annuels indexés sur le niveau général des prix (N.G.P.). En vue d'évaluer l'incidence des gains ou des pertes monétaires sur les propriétés stochastiques des données indexées sur le N.G.P., les bénéfices on été calculés à la fois avec et sans la prise en compte des gains ou des pertes monétaires. Les résultats de l'analyse chronologique des séries de données relatives aux bénéfices à travers les différentes méthodes comptables ont donné lieu aux constatations suivantes: a) à peine moins de la moitié des séries de données au coût d'origine (C.O.) ont connu des variations de type aléatoire, la plupart des autres séries étant autorégressives, et b) beaucoup moins de séries de données indexées sur le N.G.P. ont affiché des variations aléatoires avec une augmentation correspondante du nombre de séries stationnaires (modélisées comme étant autorégressives). Les résultats relatifs à la valeur prédictive étaient compatibles avec les résultats de l'analyse chronologique. En d'autres termes, l'application d'un modèle aléatoire aux séries de données au C.O. a permis de constater que ces séries sont assez bien représentées par la méthode aléatoire, mais l'application du même modèle aux séries de données indexées sur le N.G.P. confirme que ces séries ne sont pas aussi bien représentées par la méthode aléatoire.

Audit Partner Tenure and Internal Control Reporting Quality: U.S. Evidence from the Not‐For‐Profit Sector

Contemporary Accounting Research 2018 35(1), 334-364
Abstract This study examines the effects of audit partner tenure and audit partner changes on internal control reporting quality for large U.S. not‐for‐profit ( NFP ) organizations. Regulators contend that audit partners lose their objectivity over successive audits, reducing audit quality. A large body of research has examined this issue, primarily in non‐U.S. jurisdictions, with mixed results. We examine the associations between audit partner tenure and audit partner changes and the incidence of reported internal control deficiencies ( ICD s), the quality of internal control reports (following PCAOB audit quality indicators), and the severity of reported ICD s. We find negative associations between audit partner tenure and the incidence of reported ICD s, the quality of internal control reports, and the severity of reported ICD s. Together, these findings indicate that internal control reporting quality deteriorates with audit partner tenure. However, we find no association between audit partner changes and internal control reporting, which is consistent with partners lacking client specific knowledge in their first year with a client. Finally, we find no association between either audit partner tenure or changes and the likelihood of remediation. Our findings contribute large‐sample U.S. evidence on the association between audit partner tenure and internal control reporting quality and provide useful information to government regulators, NFP boards charged with the oversight of the external auditor and internal controls, and NFP stakeholders.

Strategic Consequences of Historical Cost and Fair Value Measurements*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2007 24(2), 557-584 open access
This paper examines the measurement of non-financial assets in imperfectly competitive markets and considers the effect of alternative measurements on firms' investing and operating activities. We analyze a duopoly where each firm manufactures, reports, and thereafter sells its inventory. We initially characterize the informativeness of a firm's accounting report when it is prepared using historical cost and find a firm's report does not always reveal its level of inventory. We then characterize the informativeness of a report when it is prepared using fair value and find it completely reveals a firm's inventory holding. We highlight the difficulty of implementing fair value measurements that arise because fair value is an endogenous consequence of the strategic interaction between firms.

A Note on the Relation between Frames, Perceptions, and Taxpayer Behavior*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2005 22(1), 145-164
Abstract In this study, we incorporate taxpayers' threat /opportunity perceptions into our analysis of taxpayer behavior in order to refine and extend our understanding of the internal cognitive forces that shape taxpayer behavior. Decision‐making frames (that is, the gain and loss domains from the prospect theory value function) and individual perceptions (that is, perceptions of decision alternatives as being threats or opportunities) are both likely to influence behavior, yet prior research has generally ignored the behavioral effects of individual perceptions. The results of our experiment reveal that taxpayers who are due a tax refund (owe additional taxes) prior to considering a judgemental tax deduction tend to perceive the conservative (aggressive) tax deduction to be more of an opportunity/less of a threat. In turn, we find that taxpayer frames have a direct effect on taxpayer behavior and an indirect effect on behavior through their effect on taxpayers' threat/opportunity perceptions. Perhaps the most important message of this study is that researchers can advance our understanding of the internal cognitive processes that shape taxpayer behavior by incorporating taxpayer perceptions into their research designs.

Earnings Management to Avoid Losses and Earnings Decreases: Are Analysts Fooled?*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2003 20(2), 253-294
Abstract This paper explores whether analyst forecasts impound the earnings management to avoid losses and small earnings decreases documented in Burgstahler and Dichev 1997, whether analysts are able to identify which specific firms engage in such earnings management, and the implications for significant forecast error anomalies at zero earnings and zero forecast earnings. We use data from Zacks Investment Research 1999 and find that analysts anticipate earnings management to avoid small losses and small earnings decreases. Further, analysts are much more likely to forecast zero earnings than firms are to realize zero earnings, and analysts are unable to consistently identify the specific firms that engage in earnings management to avoid small losses. This latter inability contributes to significant forecast pessimism associated with zero reported earnings and significant forecast optimism associated with zero earnings forecasts.

The Effect of Limited Liability on the Informativeness of Earnings: Evidence from the Stock and Bond Markets*

Contemporary Accounting Research 1999 16(3), 541-574
Abstract Previous empirical research on the informativeness of earnings has focused on stockholders, and has not examined differences in earnings' informativeness for stockholders and bondholders. Because stockholders are residual claimants and bondholders are fixed claimants, the informativeness of earnings should differ for these two types of investors. When a firm's default risk is low, changes in its financial condition should be of limited relevance to bondholders, but should be relevant to stockholders. In contrast, as the likelihood of financial distress increases, stockholders' limited liability allows them to abandon the firm to the bondholders (Fischer and Verrecchia 1997). Accordingly, as a firm's default risk increases, changes in its financial condition should be increasingly important to bondholders and less important to shareholders. Because earnings provide information on firm value, the stock return‐earnings association should decrease as the firm's financial strength declines, while the bond return‐earnings association should increase. We use two measures of a firm's financial strength: the firm's bond rating and its reporting of a loss. Consistent with our hypotheses, we find that the association between stock returns and changes in annual earnings decreases as bond ratings decline, while the association between bond returns and changes in annual earnings increases. These results suggest that as the company's financial condition deteriorates, earnings become less relevant for stock valuation and more relevant for bond valuation. When we partition firms based on their loss status, we find a stronger association between stock returns and annual earnings changes for firms with positive earnings (profit firms) than for firms with losses, consistent with earlier studies. In contrast, we find that the association between bond returns and earnings changes is greater for loss firms than for profit firms. These results suggest that losses reduce the informativeness of earnings for stockholders but increase informativeness for bondholders, suggesting that investors view losses as indicating increased credit risk.

The effect of size on the magnitude of long‐window earnings response coefficients*

Contemporary Accounting Research 1992 8(2), 540-560
Abstract. This paper reports the results of an empirical investigation of the effect of firm size on the magnitude of the long‐window earnings response coefficient (ERC). In contrast to earlier studies, we find that size is positively related to the magnitude of the long‐window ERC. This result was robust across alternative event windows (12, 15, and 24‐months). The argument advanced in the literature has been that since more information is available throughout the year for large firms, a less pronounced market reaction occurs at the earnings announcement date. Our result is not inconsistent with this since we examined the relationship over a long window. It appears that the greater availability of alternative information sources and increased search activities about large firms, rather than resulting in a weaker ERC for large firms, may actually enhance or strengthen the magnitude of the long‐window ERC. Our intepretation of this finding is that the broader set of information available about large firms enables market participants to interpret the information in the financial statements more completely and to estimate future cash flows more accurately, leading to a decreased level of system uncertainty. In addition, we present evidence that the largest response coefficients are for large nonsurvivor firms while the smallest are for small firms, both survivors and nonsurvivors. Résumé. Les auteurs rapportent les résultats d'une analyse empirique de l'incidence de la taille de l'entreprise sur l'amplitude du coefficient de réponse des bénéfices (CRB) à longue échéance. Contrairement aux études précédentes, celle‐ci débouche sur la conclusion que la taille est en relation positive avec l'amplitude du CRB à longue échéance. Ce résultat persiste, quelle que soit la période d'événements choisie (12, 15 ou 24 mois). L'explication proposée dans les travaux précédents est la suivante: puisqu'il est possible d'obtenir davantage d'information tout au long de l'année au sujet d'une grande entreprise, la réaction du marche est moins prononcée à la date de la déclaration des bénéfices. Les résultats de l'étude ne sont pas contradictoires puisque les auteurs étudient la relation à longue échéance. II semble que l'eventail plus grand du choix de sources d'information et les activités de recherche plus importantes en ce qui a trait aux grandes entreprises, plutôt que de donner lieu à un CRB plus faible dans leur cas, puissent en fait favoriser ou renforcer l'amplitude du CRB à longue échéance. Les auteurs en déduisent que le réservoir d'information plus large dont on dispose au sujet des grandes entreprises permet aux intervenants sur le marché d'interpréter les renseignements fournis dans les états financiers de façon plus complète et de mieux estimer les flux monétaires éventuels, ce qui conduit à une réduction de l'incertitude relative au système. De plus, les auteurs démontrent que les coefficients de réponse les plus élevés sont ceux des grandes entreprises qui ne survivent pas, tandis que les coefficients de réponse les plus faibles sont ceux des entreprises plus petites, qu'elles survivent ou non.

Audit sampling with nonsampling errors of the first type

Contemporary Accounting Research 1990 6(2), 432-445
Abstract. Standard statistical auditing procedures rest upon the assumption that statistical nonsampling errors do not exist. Three distinct types of statistical nonsampling errors have been identified in the literature. This paper presents new theoretical results regarding the problem of audit sampling in the presence of nonsampling errors of the first type. When nonsampling errors of the first type exist, standard statistical auditing procedures yield a negatively biased estimate of the true number of errors and dollar amounts associated with those errors. A double‐audit sampling plan is introduced here and provides an unbiased estimate of the true number of errors and dollar amounts of those errors in the presence of nonsampling errors of the first type. A new concept of auditor reliability also is defined, and results analogous to those in classical measurement theory are developed for the case of nonsampling errors of the first type. The multiple auditor results reported in a previous study are reanalyzed to give an estimate of the true number of problems and an estimate of auditor reliability in a complex auditing task. Résumé. Les procédés de vérification statistiques standard reposent sur l'hypothèse selon laquelle les erreurs non dues au sondage statistique n'existent pas. Trois catégories distinctes d'erreurs statistiques autres que celles d'échantillonnage sont identifiées dans la documentation existante. Les auteurs proposent de nouveaux résultats théoriques concernant le problème de vérification par sondages en présence d'erreurs non dues au sondage appartenant à la première de ces trois catégories. Lorsqu'il existe des erreurs non dues au sondage appartenant à cette première catégorie, les procédés de vérification statistiques standard livrent une estimation négativement biaisée du nombre véritable d'erreurs et des valeurs monétaires associées à ces erreurs. Le double plan de vérification par sondages proposé ici offre une estimation non biaisée du nombre d'erreurs véritable et des valeurs monétaires correspondant à ces erreurs en présence d'erreurs non dues au sondage appartenant encore une fois à la première catégorie. Les auteurs définissent également une nouvelle notion de fiabilité du vérificateur et mettent au point des résultats analogues à ceux que permet d'obtenir la théorie classique de mesure, pour les cas d'erreurs non dues au sondage appartenant à ladite première catégorie. Ils procédent à une nouvelle analyse des résultats multiples dont il est fait état dans une étude effectuée par d'autres auteurs, cela afin d'obtenir une estimation du nombre de problèmes véritable et une évaluation de la fiabilité du vérificateur dans une tâche de vérification complexe.

Auditors and deceptive financial statements: Assigning responsibility and blame*

Contemporary Accounting Research 1985 1(2), 219-241
Abstract. Public accountants (auditors) who do not prepare the financial statements of their clients are not directly responsible for them. However, if the statements are deceptive, then the question of their indirect responsibility arises. The various kinds of defenses that auditors might present for being excused from responsibility, and/or blame, are examined and evaluated. Relevant parts of the codes of ethics of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Ontario (ICAO) and the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants are compared on this basis. The ICAO Code is a better codification of auditors' obligations regarding deceptive financial statements. One implication of the analysis is that the issue of the independence of auditors is more complex than the codes suggest, and needs further clarification. Résumé. Les experts‐comptables (vérificateurs) ne sont pas directement responsables des états financiers de leurs clients qu'ils ne préparent pas. Cependant, si les états financiers sont trompeurs, alors la question de leur responsabilité indirecte se pose. Les différentes sortes de défenses que les vérificateurs pourraient présenter pour ne pas être tenus responsables et/ou blâmés sont examinées et évaluées. Les parties pertinentes des codes de déontologie de l'Institut des comptables agréés de l'Ontario et de l'American Institute of Certified Public Accountants sont comparées sur cette base. Le code de déontologie de l'Institut des comptables agréés de l'Ontario est une meilleure codification des obligations du vérificateur en ce qui a trait aux états financiers trompeurs. Une implication de l'analyse, est que la notion de l'indépendance des vérificateurs est plus complexe que ne le suggèrent les codes et demande d'être clarifiée.