2008 American Accounting Association Annual Meeting in Anaheim, the 2009 Contemporary Accounting Research/Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics Special Joint Symposium, and workshops at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics for their helpful comments
One hundred and fifty auditors participated in a study that examines whether auditors’ probabilistic judgments are closer to a Bayesian benchmark when auditors make judgments using a frequency response mode versus a probability response mode. We test a series of hypotheses that examine the effect of using a frequency response mode by professional auditors both within and outside their knowledge domain (fraud or medical case context) on assessing the likelihood of rare events. The results show that the auditors’ responses across the two case contexts (fraud and medical case) using a frequency response mode are closer to the Bayesian benchmark. In addition, we find that (1) the deviations in the auditors’ responses from the Bayesian benchmark across both response modes are significantly smaller for the fraud case in the low base rate condition only and (2) the deviations in the auditors’ responses from Bayesian benchmark for the fraud case using a frequency response mode relative to the probability response mode are smaller in the low base rate condition than the other two base rate conditions. These findings contribute to research on auditor judgment and decision-making, and demonstrate how the use of a frequency response mode can improve auditors’ assessment of fraud.
We examine the application of real options within two contexts of motion picture investment decisions by studio executives. The first is whether to continue marketing a film following its initial release in theaters (an abandonment option). The second centers on the decision to produce a sequel to an original film (a growth option). Few accounting studies have examined the use of real options but they are of considerable importance to companies managing risk through their cost structure and capital investment decisions. Specifically, a real option allows decision makers to postpone further expenditure commitment until a substantial portion of the uncertainty surrounding the investment has been resolved. Our evidence from the motion picture industry indicates that studios leave a portion of their marketing budget uncommitted until its spending is warranted. We also show that studios invest more in original films that they believe will lead to a sequel. Specifically, we find that studios spend higher production and marketing costs on films with sequels than those without, and that sequels generate higher returns on investment than non-sequels. Overall, our results suggest that the real options framework has applications for accounting research and practice by providing a basis for studying and understanding cost commitments in product or project-based settings.