Numerous studies have documented that stock returns are negatively related to changes in interest rates, but there has been little corroborating research on the information in interest‐rate changes about the fundamentals that the stock market prices. The negative correlation is often attributed to changes in the discount rate, a denominator effect in a valuation model. However, there may also be a numerator effect on the expected payoffs that are discounted. This paper shows that changes in interest rates are positively related to subsequent earnings, but the change in earnings is typically not large enough to cover the change in the required return. Hence, the net (numerator and denominator) effect on equity value is negative, consistent with the results of the research on interest rates and stock returns.

Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 109 (SFAS No. 109) allows firms to use their discretion to set arbitrarily high valuation allowances against deferred tax assets. Firms can then later use these "hidden reserves" to manage earnings. Our evidence indicates that most banks do not record a valuation allowance to manage earnings, but rather to follow the guidelines of SFAS No. 109. However, if the bank is sufficiently well capitalized to absorb the current‐period impact on capital, then the amount of the valuation allowance increases with a bank's capital. In later years, bank managers adjust the valuation allowance to smooth earnings. The magnitude of the discretionary adjustment increases with the deviation of unadjusted earnings from the forecast or historical earnings.