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Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Estimation of Structural Quantile Effects

Econometrica 2012 80(4), 1533-1562 open access
We study the asymptotic distribution of Tikhonov Regularized estimation of quantile structural effects implied by a nonseparable model. The nonparametric instrumental variable estimator is based on a minimum distance principle. We show that the minimum distance problem without regularization is locally ill-posed, and consider penalization by the norms of the parameter and its derivatives. We derive pointwise asymptotic normality and develop a consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance. We study the small sample properties via simulation results, and provice an empirical illustration to estimation of nonlinear pricing curves for telecommunications services in the U.S.

Monotone Instrumental Variables: With an Application to the Returns to Schooling

Econometrica 2000 68(4), 997-1010 open access
Econometric analyses of treatment response commonly use instrumental variable (IV) assumptions to identify treatment effects. Yet the credibility of IV assumptions is often a matter of considerable disagreement. There is therefore good reason to consider weaker but more credible assumptions. To this end, we introduce monotone instrumental variable (MIV) assumptions and the important special case of monotone treatment selection (MTS). We study the identifying power of MIV assumptions alone and combined with the assumption of monotone treatment response (MTR). We present an empirical application using the MTS and MTR assumptions to place upper bounds on the returns to schooling

An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply

Econometrica 1988 56(1), 91 open access
This paper examines household fertility and female labor supply over the life cycle. We investigate how maternal time inputs, market expenditures on offspring, as well as the benefits they yield their parents, vary with ages of offspring, and influence female labor supply and contraceptive behavior. Our econometric framework combines a female labor supply model and a contraceptive choice index function. It also accounts for the fact that conceptions are not perfectly controllable events. Using longitudinal data on married couples from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we estimate these equations and test alternative specifications of the technologies governing chld care. Our findings suggest that while parents cannot perfectly control conceptions, variations in child care costs do affect the life cycle spacing of births. Furthermore, our results demonstrate the gains of modelling the linkages between female labor supply and fertility behavior at the household level.

Intertemporal Preferences and Labor Supply

Econometrica 1988 56(2), 335 open access
Recently, several authors have argued for the use for the use of dynamic preference structures for leisure which incorporate forms of intertemporally nonseparable utility in the analysis of intertemporal labor supply decisions. In this paper, we examine whether such nonseparable utility functions are important in characterizing microdata on life-cycle labor supply. Using longitudinal data on males from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we estimate a model of life-cycle labor supply and consumption under uncertainty in which the structure of intertemporal leisure preferences is allowed to be nonseparable in leisure. Our model nests as special cases a number of alternative specifications considered in the literature. We investigate the robustness of our findings to certain forms of population heterogeneity and to some types of model misspecification. Across a number of alternative specifications, we find evidence that the standard assumption of intertemporally separable preferences for leisure is not consistent with data for prime-age males.

Program Evaluation and Causal Inference With High-Dimensional Data

Econometrica 2017 85(1), 233-298 open access
The accepted manuscript version (last revised 5 Jan 2018 (v8)) has 118 pages, 3 tables, 11 figures, and includes supplementary appendix. This version corrects some typos in Example 2 of the published version. This supplement contains 11 appendices with additional results and some omitted proofs. Appendices F-J include additional results for Sections 2-7, respectively. Appendix K gathers auxiliary results on algebra of covering entropies. Appendices L and M contain the proofs of Sections 4 and 5 omitted from the main text. Appendix N contains the proofs of Sections 6 omitted from the main text, together with the proofs of the additional results for Section 6 in Appendix I. Appendix O reports the results of a simulation experiment.

Constrained Efficiency in the Neoclassical Growth Model With Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Shocks

Econometrica 2012 80(6), 2431-2467 open access
We investigate the welfare properties of the one-sector neoclassical growth model with uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks. We focus on the notion of constrained efficiency used in the general equilibrium literature. Our characterization of constrained efficiency uses the first-order condition of a constrained planner’s problem. This condition highlights the margins of relevance for whether capital is too high or too low: the factor composition of income of the (consumption-) poor. Using three calibrations commonly considered in the literature, we illustrate that there can be either over- or underaccumulation of capital in steady state and that the constrained optimum may or may not be consistent with a nondegenerate long-run distribution of wealth. For the calibration that roughly matches the income and wealth distribution, the constrained inefficiency of the market outcome is rather striking: it has much too low a steady-state capital stock.