Knowledge that Transforms

Research Methods/Statistical Methods

Kemp and Long demonstrated that it may be preferable to exploit high and low cost resource deposits simultaneously and not in sequence as is typically assumed in the resources literature. They show that it is desirable to delay extraction from low cost pools in order to smooth consumption over time, if the resource in the ground is society's only store of wealth. This paper considers a model in which extracted resources can be converted into capital which may either be consumed or stored to provide for consumption later on. We find that a sufficient condition for the strict sequencing of extraction to be optimal is that stored capital be productive so that it can be used to produce additional capital.

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy in a small, open economy with a floating exchange rate, sticky wages, and rational expectations in both the asset and labor markets. The model developed emphasizes the link between exchange-rate depreciation and nominal wage inflation, embodying it in an expectations-augmented Phillips curve. The economy studied produces both traded and non-traded goods, and thus provides a framework in which to explore the connection between the dynamic behavior of the exchange rate and the supply structure and degree of openness of the economy. In addition, the paper examines the "vicious circle" hypothesis, showing how an explosive cycle of exchange-rate depreciation and wage-price inflation may arise in response to an expected monetary expansion.

[Experimental studies have shown that the key behavioral assumption of expected utility theory, the so-called "independence axiom," tends to be systematically violated in practice. Such findings would lead us to question the empirical relevance of the large body of literature on the behavior of economic agents under uncertainty which uses expected utility analysis. The first purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the basic concepts, tools, and results of expected utility analysis do not depend on the independence axiom, but may be derived from the much weaker assumption of smoothness of preferences over alternative probability distributions. The second purpose of the paper is to show that this approach may be used to construct a simple model of preferences which ties together a wide body of observed behavior toward risk, including the Friedman-Savage and Markowitz observations, and both the Allais and St. Petersburg Paradoxes.]