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Estimation of a Model of Entry in the Airline Industry

Econometrica 1992 60(4), 889
This paper considers the effect of an airline's scale of operation at an airport on the profitability of routes flown out of that airport. The empirical methodology uses the entry decisions of airlines as indicators of underlying profitability; the results extend the empirical literature on airport presence by providing a new set of estimates of the determinants of city-pair profitability. These estimates imply that city-pair profits increase in airport presence and decrease rapidly in the number of entering firms. The literature on empirical models of oligopoly entry is also extended via a focus on the role of differences between firms.

Asymptotic Expansions of the Distributions of Estimates in Simultaneous Equations for Alternative Parameter Sequences

Econometrica 1977 45(2), 509
The distributions of the LIML and TSLS estimates of the coefficient of an endogenous variable in a single equation can be approximated by asymptotic expansions. This paper relates the expansions in terms of the noncentrality parameter and the sample size going to infinity, the noncentrality parameter going to infinity with the sample size held fixed, and the standard deviation of the disturbance going to zero (small-o). 1. INTRODUCriON RECENTLY, ASYMPTOTIC EXPANSIONS of the distributions of estimates of coefficients of a single equation in a system of simultaneous equations have been made by Anderson [1], Anderson and Sawa [2], Mariano [6 and 7], and Sargan and Mikhail [11]. The expansions have usually been carried out on the basis that the sample size increases and that the effect of the exogenous variables (the noncentrality parameter) increases along with the sample size. In this paper we consider the case of the covariance matrix of the disturbances known and alternatively the case of the sample size fixed. We relate these three cases to the approach of letting the disturbance decrease (the small-o- approach). The estimates treated are two-stage least squares (TSLS) and limited information maximum likelihood (LIML).

Generalized Costs of Adjustment and Dynamic Factor Demand Theory

Econometrica 1973 41(4), 657
[The properties of systems of investment equations derived under the hypothesis of present value maximization are investigated. The possibility that either the optimal time rate of change in some factor or the stationary level of some stock may increase with its own rental rate is shown to be consistent with the hypothesis in the case of more than one factor. A condition necessary for this result is that marginal products depend on the rates of which factor levels are justified.]

Weaker Criteria and Tests for Linear Restrictions in Regression

Econometrica 1972 40(4), 689 open access
The standard F test for linear restrictions in regression is relevant as a criterion but fails to capture the notion of tradeoff between bias and variance. Average squared distance criteria yield operational tests that are more appropriate, depending upon objectives. In the present paper two alternative criteria are developed. The first allows testing of the hypothesis that the average squared distance of a restricted estimator from the parameter point in k space is less than the average squared distance of the unrestricted, ordinary least squares estimator from the same parameter point. The second sets up a test of betterness of the restricted estimator over the unrestricted estimator of E(Y/X), where betterness is again defined in average squared distance.

Approximations to Finite Sample Moments of Estimators Whose Exact Sampling Distributions are Unknown

Econometrica 1970 38(3), 533
The exact sampling distributions of estimators of structural parameters of econometric models are unknown except for a few simple cases. In this situation two alternative approaches towards evaluating finite sample properties of various estimators have been adopted in the literature: (i) Monte Carlo experiments, and (ii) the approach pioneered by Nagar and his students in which the sampling error of an estimator is expressed as the sum of an infinite series of random variables, successive terms of which are of decreasing order of sample size in probability. It is claimed that the small sample properties of the estimator under consideration can be approximated by those of the first few terms of such an infinite series. This paper shows through examples that the Nagar approach can be misleading in the sense that it can yield an estimate for finite sample bias that differs from the true finite sample bias to the same order of sample size. And it can yield estimates of bias which are finite (infinite) while the true bias is infinite (finite). The paper also draws attention to some of the pitfalls to be avoided in studying the properties of an infinite sequence of random variables.