Knowledge that Transforms

We consider a first-order autoregression with i.i.d. errors and a fixed initial condition. The asymptotic distribution of the normalized least-squares estimator as the sampling interval converges to zero is shown to be the same as the exact distribution of the continuous-time estimator in an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. This asymptotic distribution permits explicit consideration of the effect of the initial condition. The appropriate moment-generating function is derived and used to tabulate the limiting distribution and probability density functions, the moments and some power functions. The adequacy of this asymptotic approximation is found to be excellent for values of the autoregressive parameter near one and any fixed initial condition. Copyright 1991 by The Econometric Society.

This paper derives several properties unique to nonlinear model hypothesis testing problems involving linear or nonlinear inequality constraints in the null or alternative hypothesis. The paper is organized around a lemma that characterizes the set containing the least favorable parameter value for a nonlinear model inequality constraints hypothesis test. The author then presents two examples that illustrate several implications of this lemma. He also discusses the impact of these properties on the empirical implementation and interpretation of these test procedures. Copyright 1991 by The Econometric Society.

This paper is concerned with the estimation of covariance matrices in the presence of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation of unknown forms. Currently available estimators that are designed for this context depend upon the choice of a lag truncation parameter and a weighting scheme. Results in the literature provide a condition on the growth rate of the lag truncation parameter as T → ∞ that is sufficient for consistency. No results are available, however, regarding the choice of lag truncation parameter for a fixed sample size, regarding data-dependent automatic lag truncation parameters, or regarding the choice of weighting scheme. In consequence, available estimators are not entirely operational and the relative merits of the estimators are unknown. This paper addresses these problems. The asymptotic truncated mean squared errors of estimators in a given class are determined and compared. Asymptotically optimal kernel/weighting scheme and bandwidth/lag truncation parameters are obtained using an asymptotic truncated mean squared error criterion. Using these results, data-dependent automatic bandwidth/lag truncation parameters are introduced. The finite sample properties of the estimators are analyzed via Monte Carlo simulation.

Matematisk Statistik

In this paper we provide a framework to study the aggregate dynamic behavior of an economy where individual units follow (S, s) policies. We characterize structural and stochastic heterogeneities that ensure convergence of the economy's aggregate to that of its frictionless counterpart, determine the speed at which convergence takes place, and describe the transitional dynamics of this economy. In particular, we consider a dynamic economy where agents differ in their initial positions within their bands and face both stochastic and structural heterogeneity; where the former refers to the presence of (unit specific) idiosyncratic shocks, and the latter to differences in the widths of units' (S, s) bands and their response to aggregate shocks. We study the evolution of the economy's aggregate and the evolution of the difference between this aggregate and that of an economy without macroeconomic friction, where the latter pertains to a situation where individual units adjust with no delay to all shocks. We also examine the sensitivity of this difference to common shocks. For example, in the retail inventory problem the aggregate deviation and sensitivity to common shocks correspond to the aggregate inventory level and its sensitivity to aggregate demand shocks, respectively.

W. M. Gorman's (1981) concept of Engel curve "rank" is extended to apply to any demand system. Rank is shown to have implications for specification, separability, and aggregation of demands. A simple nonparametric test of rank using Engel curve data is described and applied to U.S. and U.K. consumer survey data. The test employs a new general method for testing the rank of estimated matrices. The results are used to assess theoretical and empirical aggregation error in representative consumer models, and to explain a representative consumer paradox. Copyright 1991 by The Econometric Society.

Properties of maximum likelihood estimates of cointegrated systems are studied. Alternative formulations are considered, including a new triangular system error correction mechanism. We demonstrate that full system maximum likelihood brings the problem of inference within the family covered by the locally asymptotically mixed normal asymptotic theory, provided all unit roots have been eliminated by specification and data transformation. Methodological issues provide a major focus of the paper. Our results favor use of full system estimation in error correction mechanisms or subsystem methods that are asymptotically equivalent. They also point to disadvantages in the use of unrestricted VAR's formulated in levels and of certain single equation approaches to estimation of error correction mechanisms. Copyright 1991 by The Econometric Society.

Starting from a tariff-distorted equilibrium of international trade, the authors examine the welfare effects of a gradual multilateral reform of tariffs (and other trade taxes and subsidies). Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of strict Pareto improving multilateral (differential) tariff reforms, accompanied by international transfers of income, are obtained. These results are then applied to various concrete tariff reform proposals such as proportional reductions in tariffs and the reduction of the highest ad valorem tariff rates. Some of the authors' theorems extend the generality of previously obtained results and some new tariff reform proposals are also made. Copyright 1991 by The Econometric Society.

Consider a social choice correspondence as a mapping from preference profiles to lotteries over some finite set of alternatives. A virtually implementable social choice function in Nash equilibrium is defined, under mild domain restrictions it is shown that in societies with at least three individuals all social choice correspondences are virtually implementable in Nash equilibrium. This contrasts with Maskin's classic characterization, which requires monotonicity as a necessary condition for exact implementation in Nash equilibrium. The two person case is considered seperately. While not all two-person social choice functions are virtually implementable, our necessary and sufficient condition is simple, which contrasts with the complex necessary and sufficient conditions for exact implementation. Copyright 1991 by The Econometric Society.