In this paper I develop a practical extension of McFaddens method of simulated moments estimator for limited dependent variable models to the panel data case. The method is based on a factorization of the MSM first order condition into transition probabi
The author derives some exact finite sample disbibutions and characterizes the tail behavior of maximum likelihood estimators of the cointegrating coefficients in error correction models. The reduced rank regression estimator has a distribution with Cauchy-like tails and no finite moments of integer order. The maximum likelihood estimator of the coefficients in a particular triangular system representation has matrix t-distribution tails with finite integer moments to order T - n + r, where T is the sample size, n is the total number of variables, and r is the dimension of cointegration space. This helps explain some recent simulation studies where extreme outliers occur more frequently for the reduced rank regression estimator than for alternative asymptotically efficient procedures based on triangular representation. Copyright 1994 by The Econometric Society.
Two of the most important refinements of the Nash equilibrium concept for extensive form games are (trembling hand) perfect equilibrium and sequential equilibrium. It is shown here that, for almost all assignments of payoffs to outcomes, the sets of sequential and perfect equilibrium strategy profiles are identical. This result is obtained by exploiting the semialgebraic nature of equilibrium correspondences, following from a deep theorem of mathematical logic. Copyright 1994 by The Econometric Society.
[In conformity with the Savage model of decision-making, modern asset pricing theory assumes that agents' beliefs about the likelihoods of future states of the world may be represented by a probability measure. As a result, no meaningful distinction is allowed between risk, where probabilities are available to guide choice, and uncertainty, where information is too imprecise to be summarized adequately by probabilities. In contrast, Knight and Keynes emphasized the distinction between risk and uncertainty and argued that uncertainty is more common in economic decision-making. Moreover, the Savage model is contradicted by evidence, such as the Ellsberg Paradox, that people prefer to act on known rather than unknown or vague probabilities. This paper provides a formal model of asset price determination in which Knightian uncertainty plays a role. Specifically, we extend the Lucas (1978) general equilibrium pure exchange economy by suitably generalizing the representation of beliefs along the lines suggested by Gilboa and Schmeidler. Two principal results are the proof of existence of equilibrium and the characterization of equilibrium prices by an "Euler inequality." A noteworthy feature of the model is that uncertainty may lead to equilibria that are indeterminate, that is, there may exist a continuum of equilibria for given fundamentals. That leaves the determination of a particular equilibrium price process to "animal spirits" and sizable volatility may result. Finally, it is argued that empirical investigation of our model is potentially fruitful.]
A noncooperative implementation of the core is provided for games with transferable utility. The implementation obtained here is meant to reflect the standard motivation for the core as closely as possible. In the model proposed, time is continuous. This idealized treatment of time is most amenable for capturing an essential feature of the core - there is always time to reject a noncore proposal before it is consumated.
The authors study repeated games in which players observe a public outcome that imperfectly signals the actions played. They provide conditions guaranteeing that any feasible, individually rational payoff vector of the stage game can arise as a perfect equilibrium of the repeated game with sufficiently little discounting. The central condition requires that there exist action profiles with the property that, for any two players, no two deviations--one by either player--give rise to the same probability distribution over public outcomes. The results apply to principal-agent, partnership, oligopoly, and mechanism-design models, and to one-shot games with transferable utilities. Copyright 1994 by The Econometric Society.
This paper establishes a correspondence in large samples between classical hypothesis tests and Bayesian posterior odds tests for models without trends. More specifically, tests of point null hypotheses and one- or two-sided alternatives are considered (where nuisance parameters may be present under both hypotheses). It is shown that, for certain priors, the Bayesian posterior odds test is equivalent in large samples to classical Wald, Lagrange multiplier, and likelihood ratio tests for some significance level and vice versa. The priors considered under the alternative hypothesis are taken to shrink to the null hypothesis at rate n[superscript -1/2] as the sample size n increases. Copyright 1994 by The Econometric Society.
"This paper describes and analyzes movements of older men among labor force states [in the United States] using quarterly observations derived from the Retirement History Survey (RHS)." The results indicate "substantial undercounts in the biannual data, indicating that the prevalence of labor force movements at older ages has been underestimated previously.... The results show that labor force dynamics at older ages are important, including duration and spell occurrence dependence, and work experience effects. These effects are robust to nonparametric controls for unobserved heterogeneity. The estimates indicate that social security benefits have strong effects on the timing of labor force transitions at older ages, but that changes in social security benefit levels over time have not contributed much to the trend toward earlier labor force exit."
The Theorem of Gittins and Jones (1974) is, perhaps, the single most powerful result in the literature on Bandit problems. This result establishes that in independent-armed Bandit problems with geometric discounting over an infinite horizon, all optimal strategies may be obtained by solving a family of simple optimal stopping problems that associate with each arm an index known as the dynamic allocation index or, more popularly, as the Gittins index. Importantly, the Gittins index of an arm depends solely on the characteristics of that arm and the rate of discounting, and is otherwise completely independent of the problem under consideration. These features simplify significantly the task of characterizing optimal strategies in this class of problems.
'No trade' theorems have shown that new information will not lead to trade when agents share the same prior beliefs. This paper explores the structure of no trade theorems with heterogeneous prior beliefs. It is shown how different notions of efficiency under asymmetric information--ex ante, interim, ex post--are related to agents' prior beliefs as well as incentive compatible and public versions of those efficiency concepts. These efficiency results are used to characterize necessary and sufficient conditions on agents' beliefs for no trade theorems in different trading environments. Copyright 1994 by The Econometric Society.