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A Commodity Price Process with a Unique Continuous Invariant Distribution Having Infinite Mean

Econometrica 2002 70(3), 1213-1219 open access
Americanae nace como un proyecto conjunto que surge dentro de la Red Europea de Información y Documentación sobre América Latina (REDIAL), y que ha afrontado la Biblioteca de la Agencia Española de Cooperación Internacional para el Desarrollo (AECID). Esta nueva biblioteca virtual hace más accesibles los libros digitales de tema americanista a los investigadores y usuarios interesados de cualquier parte del mundo.

Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models

Econometrica 1989 57(4), 861
This paper deals with the problem of aggregation where the focus of the analysis is whether to predict aggregate variables using macro or micro equations. The GrunfeldGriliches prediction criterion for choosing between aggregate and disaggregate equations is generalized to allow for contemporaneous covariances between the disturbances of micro equations and the possibility of different parametric restrictions on the equations of the disaggregate model. A new test is proposed of the hypothesis of 'perfect aggregation' which tests the validity of aggregation either through coefficient equality or through the stability over time of the composition of the regressors across the micro units. The tools developed in the paper are then applied to employment demand functions for the UK economy disaggregated by 40 industries. Firstly a set of unrestricted log-linear dynamic specifications are estimated for the disaggregate equations and then linear parameter restrictions are imposed as appropriate. Corresponding unrestricted and restricted aggregate equations are estimated. Two different levels of aggregation are considered: aggregation over the 23 manufacturing industries and aggregation over all 40 industries of the economy. In both cases the hypothesis of perfect aggregation is firmly rejected. For the manufacturing industries the prediction criterion marginally favors the aggregate equation but over all industries the disaggregated equations are strongly preferred.

Strategic Trading in Informationally Complex Environments

Econometrica 2018 86(4), 1119-1157 open access
We study trading behavior and the properties of prices in informationally complex markets. Our model is based on the single‐period version of the linear‐normal framework of Kyle (1985). We allow for essentially arbitrary correlations among the random variables involved in the model: the value of the traded asset, the signals of strategic traders and competitive market makers, and the demand from liquidity traders. We show that there always exists a unique linear equilibrium, characterize it analytically, and illustrate its properties with a number of applications. We then use this characterization to study the informational efficiency of prices as the number of strategic traders becomes large. If liquidity demand is positively correlated (or uncorrelated) with the asset value, then prices in large markets aggregate all available information. If liquidity demand is negatively correlated with the asset value, then prices in large markets aggregate all information except that contained in liquidity demand.

Bertrand-Edgeworth Competition in Experimental Markets

Econometrica 1994 62(2), 343
The Bertrand-Edgeworth model describes competition among price setting sellers with production capacity constraints. The authors report on laboratory experiments that permit evaluation of different theories of Bertrand-Edgeworth competition: competitive pricing, Edgeworth cycles in prices, mixed strategy Nash equilibrium pricing, and tacit collusion. Each of the theories helps to explain some aspects of the data. However, none of these theories are completely consistent with the data. In relative terms, the Edgeworth cycle theory provides better predictions of key aspects of the data than the other theories. Coauthors are Stephen Rassenti, Stanley S. Reynolds, and Vernon L. Smith. Copyright 1994 by The Econometric Society.

Mixture Symmetry and Quadratic Utility

Econometrica 1991 59(1), 139
The independence axiom of expected utility theory has recently been weakened to the betweenness axiom. In this paper, an even weaker axiom, called mixture symmetry, is presented. The corresponding functional structure is such that utility is a betweenness functional on part of this domain and quadratic in probabilities elsewhere. The experimental evidence against betweenness provides one motivation for the more general theory presented here. Another advantage of the mixture symmetric class of utility functions is that it is sufficiently flexible to permit the disentangling of attitudes toward risk and toward randomization. Copyright 1991 by The Econometric Society.

A Note on Comparative Ambiguity Aversion and Justifiability

Econometrica 2016 84(5), 1903-1916
We consider a decision maker who ranks actions according to the smooth ambiguity criterion of Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji (2005). An action is justifiable if it is a best reply to some belief over probabilistic models. We show that higher ambiguity aversion expands the set of justifiable actions. A similar result holds for risk aversion. Our results follow from a generalization of the duality lemma of Wald (1949) and Pearce (1984). [web URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.3982/ECTA14429/abstract]