Knowledge that Transforms

This paper provides a simulated moments estimator (SME) of the parameters of dynamic models in which the state vector follows a time-homogeneous Markov process. Conditions are provided for both weak and strong consistency as well as asymptotic normality. Various tradeoff's among the regularity conditions underlying the large sample properties of the SME are discussed in the context of an asset pricing model.

A global game is an incomplete information game where the actual payoffstructure is determined by a rairdom draw from a given class of games and where each player makes a noisy observation of the selected game.For 2 x 2 games, it is shown that equilibrium play in a global game with vanishing noise forces the players to conform to Harsanyi and Selten's risk dominance criterion.When the uncertainty is one-dimensional, the result may be obtained by repeated elimination of dominated strategies in the global game."1'his pxper is a combinat.ion,and a subatantial generalization, of Carlxson (19R9) and Carlason and Van Damme (1989).Some basic ideas on global games and their telation to risk dominance originate from a note, written by Cadseon in 1985.The suthora thank R.einhard Selten, Lars-Gunnar Svensson, Jdrgen Weibull and various seminar audiences Cor helpful comments.The conatructive criticiam of several referees considerably improved the paper's quality.

Three theorems state conditions sufficient for the inessentiality of equilibrium in a pure exchange, sequence economy. The agents have uncommon priors, state-contingent utility functions, and asymmetric information in every trading period, and they trade different sets of event-contingent claims in different periods. The theorems provide alternative interpretations of the concept of market completeness, reveal two fundamentally different ways to obtain inessentiality, and shed light on the conditions permitting speculation and the role of price-contingent trading. None of the theorems requires ex ante Pareto optimality or the absence of arbitrage opportunities. Copyright 1993 by The Econometric Society.