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Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S, s) Approach

Econometrica 1999 67(4), 783-826 open access
In this paper we derive a model of aggregate investment that builds from the lumpy microeconomic behavior of firms facing stochastic fixed adjustment costs. Instead of the standard sharp (S,s) bands, firms' adjustment policies take the form of a probability of adjustment (adjustment hazard) that responds smoothly to changes in firms' capacity gap. The model has appealing aggregation properties, and yields nonlinear aggregate time series processes. The passivity of normal times is, occasionally, more than offset by the brisk response to large accumulated shocks. Using within and out-of-sample criteria, we find that the model performs substantially better than the standard linear models of investment for postwar sectoral U.S. manufacturing equipment and structures investment data

A Characterization of Interim Efficiency with Public Goods

Econometrica 1999 67(2), 435-448
In this paper, we consider the following classical public goods problem. A group of individuals must decide on a level of public good that is produced according to constant returns to scale up to some capacity constraint. In addition to deciding the level of public good, the group must decide how to tax the individuals in the group in order to cover the cost. The distribution of the burden of taxation is important because different individuals have different marginal rates of substitution between the private good (taxes) and the public good, and may have different incomes as well. These individual marginal rates of substitution are private information; that is, each individual knows his or her own marginal rate of substitution, but not those of the other members of the group. Adopting a Bayesian mechanism design framework, we assume that the distribution of marginal rates of substitution is common knowledge

Equilibria in Networks

Econometrica 1999 67(6), 1407-1434
We study a model in which two carriers choose networks to connect cities and compete for customers. We show that if carriers compete aggressively (e.g., Bertrand-like behavior), one carrier operating a single hub-spoke network is an equilibrium outcome. Competing hub-spoke networks are not an equilibrium outcome, although duopoly equilibria in nonhub networks can exist. If carriers do not compete aggressively, an equilibrium with competing hub-spoke networks exists as long as the number of cities is not too small. We provide conditions under which all equilibria consist of hub-spoke networks.