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The Microeconomics of Efficient Group Behavior: Identification

Econometrica 2009 77(3), 763-799
Consider a group consisting of S members facing a common budget constraint p'xi=1: any demand vector belonging to the budget set can be (privately or publicly) consumed by the members. Although the intragroup decision process is not known, it is assumed to generate Pareto-efficient outcomes; neither individual consumptions nor intragroup transfers are observable. The paper analyzes when, to what extent, and under which conditions it is possible to recover the underlying structure-individual preferences and the decision process-from the group's aggregate behavior. We show that the general version of the model is not identified. However, a simple exclusion assumption (whereby each member does not consume at least one good) is sufficient to guarantee generic identifiability of the welfare-relevant structural concepts. Copyright 2009 The Econometric Society.

The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?

Econometrica 2009 77(5), 1339-1369
I discuss the failure of the canonical search and matching model to match the cyclical volatility in the job finding rate. I show that job creation in the model is influenced by wages in new matches. I summarize microeconometric evidence and find that wages in new matches are volatile and consistent with the model's key predictions. Therefore, explanations of the unemployment volatility puzzle have to preserve the cyclical volatility of wages. I discuss a modification of the model, based on fixed matching costs, that can increase cyclical unemployment volatility and is consistent with wage flexibility in new matches.

Gender Differences in Competition: Evidence\\ From a Matrilineal and a Patriarchal Society

Econometrica 2009 77(5), 1637-1664
We use a controlled experiment to explore whether there are gender differences in selecting into competitive environments across two distinct societies: the Maasai in Tanzania and the Khasi in India. One unique aspect of these societies is that the Maasai represent a textbook example of a patriarchal society, whereas the Khasi are matrilineal. Similar to the extant evidence drawn from experiments executed in Western cultures, Maasai men opt to compete at roughly twice the rate as Maasai women. Interestingly, this result is reversed among the Khasi, where women choose the competitive environment more often than Khasi men, and even choose to compete weakly more often than Maasai men. These results provide insights into the underpinnings of the factors hypothesized to be determinants of the observed gender differences in selecting into competitive environments. Copyright 2009 The Econometric Society.

Long-Term Risk: An Operator Approach

Econometrica 2009 77(1), 177-234 open access
We create an analytical structure that reveals the long-run risk-return relationship for nonlinear continuous-time Markov environments. We do so by studying an eigenvalue problem associated with a positive eigenfunction for a conveniently chosen family of valuation operators. The members of this family are indexed by the elapsed time between payoff and valuation dates, and they are necessarily related via a mathematical structure called a semigroup. We represent the semigroup using a positive process with three components: an exponential term constructed from the eigenvalue, a martingale, and a transient eigenfunction term. The eigenvalue encodes the risk adjustment, the martingale alters the probability measure to capture long-run approximation, and the eigenfunction gives the long-run dependence on the Markov state. We discuss sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of the relevant eigenvalue and eigenfunction. By showing how changes in the stochastic growth components of cash flows induce changes in the corresponding eigenvalues and eigenfunctions, we reveal a long-run risk-return trade-off.

Comments on ''Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models''

Econometrica 2009 77(6), 2009-2017 open access
We show by counterexample that Proposition 2 in Fernández-Villaverde, Rubio-Ramírez, and Santos (Econometrica (2006), 74, 93–119) is false. We also show that even if their Proposition 2 were corrected, it would be irrelevant for parameter estimates. As a more constructive contribution, we consider the effects of approximation error on parameter estimation, and conclude that second order approximation errors in the policy function have at most second order effects on parameter estimates.

Inference for Continuous Semimartingales Observed at High Frequency

Econometrica 2009 77(5), 1403-1445
The econometric literature of high frequency data often relies on moment estimators which are derived from assuming local constancy of volatility and related quantities. We here study this local-constancy approximation as a general approach to estimation in such data. We show that the technique yields asymptotic properties (consistency, normality) that are correct subject to an ex post adjustment involving asymptotic likelihood ratios. These adjustments are derived and documented. Several examples of estimation are provided: powers of volatility, leverage effect, and integrated betas. The first order approximations based on local constancy can be over the period of one observation or over blocks of successive observations. It has the advantage of gaining in transparency in defining and analyzing estimators. The theory relies heavily on the interplay between stable convergence and measure change, and on asymptotic expansions for martingales.