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An Evaluation of Econometric Models of Adaptive Learning

Econometrica 2001 69(6), 1597-1628
This paper evaluates the effectiveness of four econometric approaches intended to identify the learning rules being used by subjects in experiments with normal form games. This is done by simulating experimental data and then estimating the econometric models on the simulated data to determine if they can correctly identify the rule that was used to generate the data. The results show that all of the models examined possess difficulties in accurately distinguishing between the data generating processes.

Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series

Econometrica 2001 69(1), 117-161
An asymptotic theory is developed for nonlinear regression with integrated processes. The models allow for nonlinear effects from unit root time series and therefore deal with the case of parametric nonlinear cointegration. The theory covers integrable and asymptotically homogeneous functions. Sufficient conditions for weak consistency are given and a limit distribution theory is provided. The rates of convergence depend on the properties of the nonlinear regression function, and are shown to be as slow as n 1/4 for integrable functions, and to be generally polynomial in n 1/2 for homogeneous functions. For regressions with integrable functions, the limiting distribution theory is mixed normal with mixing variates that depend on the sojourn time of the limiting Brownian motion of the integrated process.