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Bubbles and Self-Enforcing Debt

Econometrica 2009 77(4), 1137-1164
We characterize equilibria with endogenous debt constraints for a general equilibrium econ-omy with limited commitment in which the only consequence of default is losing the ability to borrow in future periods. First, we show that equilibrium debt limits must satisfy a simple con-dition that allows agents to exactly roll over existing debt period by period. Second, we provide an equivalence result, whereby the resulting set of equilibrium allocations with self-enforcing private debt is equivalent to the allocations that are sustained with unbacked public debt or rational bubbles. In contrast to the classic result by Bulow and Rogo § (AER, 1989), positive levels of debt are sustainable in our environment because the interest rate is su¢ciently low to provide repayment incentives. We thank for useful comments the editor, Harald Uhlig, three anonymous referees, Marios Angeletos, Andy

Dynamic Global Games of Regime Change: Learning, Multiplicity, and the Timing of Attacks

Econometrica 2007 75(3), 711-756
Global games of regime change–coordination games of incomplete information in which a status quo is abandoned once a sufficiently large fraction of agents attacks it–have been used to study crises phenomena such as currency attacks, bank runs, debt crises, and political change. We extend the static benchmark examined in the literature by allowing agents to take actions in many periods and to learn about the underlying fundamentals over time. We first provide a simple recursive algorithm for the characterization of monotone equilibria. We then show how the interaction of the knowledge that the regime survived past attacks with the arrival of information over time, or with changes in fundamentals, leads to interesting equilibrium properties. First, multiplicity may obtain under the same conditions on exogenous information that guarantee uniqueness in the static benchmark. Second, fundamentals may predict the eventual regime outcome but not the timing or the number of attacks. Finally, equilibrium dynamics can alternate between phases of tranquillity–where no attack is possible–and phases