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The Incidence of Adverse Medical Outcomes Under Prospective Payment

Econometrica 1995 63(1), 29
This paper examines the effect on health outcomes of moving from cost-based to prospective reimbursement of hospitals. The paper reaches two conclusions. First, hospitals that experienced average price declines had a greater share of deaths occur in the hospital or shortly after discharge. By one year postdischarge, however, this increased mortality was eliminated. Second, there was an increase in readmission rates as hospitals were no longer reimbursed for marginal units of care they provided. This increased readmission appears to be due to accounting changes on the part of hospitals rather than changes in patient morbidity. Copyright 1995 by The Econometric Society.