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Mixed Hitting-Time Models

Econometrica 2012 80(2), 783-819
We study mixed hitting-time models that specify durations as the first time a Lévy process-a continuous-time process with stationary and independent incrementscrosses a heterogeneous threshold.Such models of substantial interest because they can be deduced from optimal-stopping models with heterogeneous agents that do not naturally produce a mixed proportional hazards structure.We show how strategies for analyzing the identifiability of the mixed proportional hazards model can be adapted to prove identifiability of a hitting-time model with observed covariates and unobserved heterogeneity.We discuss inference from censored data and give examples of structural applications.We conclude by discussing the relative merits of both models as complementary frameworks for econometric duration analysis.

Constrained Efficiency in the Neoclassical Growth Model With Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Shocks

Econometrica 2012 80(6), 2431-2467 open access
We investigate the welfare properties of the one-sector neoclassical growth model with uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks. We focus on the notion of constrained efficiency used in the general equilibrium literature. Our characterization of constrained efficiency uses the first-order condition of a constrained planner’s problem. This condition highlights the margins of relevance for whether capital is too high or too low: the factor composition of income of the (consumption-) poor. Using three calibrations commonly considered in the literature, we illustrate that there can be either over- or underaccumulation of capital in steady state and that the constrained optimum may or may not be consistent with a nondegenerate long-run distribution of wealth. For the calibration that roughly matches the income and wealth distribution, the constrained inefficiency of the market outcome is rather striking: it has much too low a steady-state capital stock.