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A Convergent Adjustment Process for Firms in Competition

Econometrica 1977 45(6), 1349
[This paper describes a market in which firms vary their quantities of production according to a new adjustment process. Each firm bases its new production entirely upon a knowledge of its own previous productions and profits. It has no knowledge of the payoff functions of the market. Numerical analysis of the process indicates an approach to equilibrium for all initial states. The set of allowed limit points is rigorously characterized, and determined explicitly in the case of two firms. Some exact solutions are found. The process can be regarded as a way of playing a continuous game with a minimum of information.]

The Continuity of Optimal Dynamic Decision Rules

Econometrica 1977 45(6), 1365
In recent studies of the temporary competitive equilibrium, agents' current decision correspondences are derived using a standard recursion procedure, which is only applicable when the planning horizon is finite. This paper presents a general derivation of the current decision rule without restrictions on the time horizon or the number of states of the world in any period. It is shown that if utility is continuous in the product topology and if, in each period, expectations and the current constraint correspondence are continuous, then the current decision rule is upper semi-continuous. This result is obtained by associating with each current decision a set of feasible future plans. The expected utility of a current decision is then the expected utility of the best feasible future plan. The feasible future plan correspondence is shown to be continuous and the Maximum Theorem completes the proof.

Revealed Preference and Aggregation

Econometrica 1977 45(5), 1173
This paper studies conditions under which aggregate demand behavior will satisfy the usual revealed preference axioms. Assuming a fixed distribution of income and the hypothesis that individual demand is homogeneous in income, it is shown that the weak axiom of revealed preference or the congruence axiom will hold in the aggregate if each individual demand satisfies the corresponding axiom. It is also shown that the hypothesis of homogeneity in income is not necessary for the weak axiom to hold in the aggregate. 1. INTRODUCrION THE PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER is to establish conditions under which aggregate demand behavior will have properties normally associated with individual demand when the distribution of income remains fixed. The best-known result of this type is that if each individual has a homogeneous concave utility function, and the distribution of income is fixed, then the aggregate demand correspondence will be one derived from a homogeneous concave utility function. This was first established by Eisenberg [4], though not in the context of demand theory, who employed duality theory of concave programming. More recently Chipman [1] interpreted Eisenberg's results from the point of view of demand theory and gave a proof of the aggregation theorem based in part on earlier work of Chipman and Moore [2 and 3]. In this paper utility functions will not be employed; instead, a revealed preference approach is taken. Strengthened forms of the weak axiom of revealed preference, the strong axiom of revealed preference, and the congruence axiom are used which are preserved in aggregation, and it is shown that demand correspondences homogeneous of degree one in income which satisfy the regular revealed preference axioms will also satisfy the strengthened versions. One advantage of this approach is that it shows the Eisenberg-Chipman aggregation theorem is a purely algebraic problem and does not require continuity or convexity assumptions. It will also be shown that there are demand functions not homogeneous of degree one in income which satisfy the strengthened form of the

Spectral Utility Functions and the Design of a Stationary System

Econometrica 1977 45(4), 1007
abstract: the conventional approach to the design of stochastic systems operates, either directly or indirectly, by minimising the variance of the model. this procedure can be regarded as a natural extension of the stability analysis of a deterministic system, according to which the degree of stability is inversely related to the absolute value of its largest characteristic root. very often, however, the policymaker is not indifferent to the frequency composition of economic fluctuations. he may, for example, have a marked dislike for short-term fluctuations. we formalize this notion by setting up a spectral utility function as a criterion for steady-state optimisation, and show that the results from such an optimisation may conflict with those yielded by the conventional approach. large characteristic roots may not necessarily be bad! the scheme of the paper is as follows. because the ideas involved may be unfamiliar we shall spend some time on a rather intuitive motivation for what follows. this is done in section i. in section ii the notion of a spectral utility function is introduced and its evaluation discussed. we then return to the example of section i to give it a more precise treatment. section iii contains extensions, principally to the multivariate case.;

`Second Best' Congestion Taxes in Transportation Systems

Econometrica 1977 45(7), 1703
[The optimal policy prescription in response to congestion on a traffic network involves taxes levied so as to increase the private costs of vehicle use by the amount of the costs imposed on other users of the system. However, technical and political constraints may make this taxation policy infeasible. Using assumptions on the effect of taxation on the level and structure of demandfor transportation services, this paper provides guidelines for taxation (and possibly subsidization) in a multi-mode traffic system in which such constraints are effective.]

Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Measurement Error

Econometrica 1977 45(5), 1243
[This paper examines the estimation of a normal contemporaneous simultaneous equation model in which some of the exogenous variables are measured with error.The theory for asymptotically efficient least squares estimation is developed. The primary result is a structural least squares estimator which offers certain computational advantages relative to the full information maximum likelihood estimator.]

Kernels of Preference Structures

Econometrica 1977 45(1), 91
[A kernel of a set of alternative actions over which there is a partial order is defined in terms of optimality properties. It is shown to be the same as the generalized efficient set. A variety of theorems such as uniqueness, existence, and composition in terms of other sets are established. Related sets, such as quasi kernels and weak kernels, are also considered.]

The Durbin-Watson Test for Serial Correlation with Extreme Sample Sizes or Many Regressors

Econometrica 1977 45(8), 1989
Recent studies by Durbin and Watson [5], L'Esperance and Taylor [10], Koerts and Abrahamse [8], Tillman [15], Vinod [16], Savin and White [14] and others have shown increasing interest in the test of autocorrelation based on the d statistic proposed by Durbin and Watson [3 and 4]. The focus of these papers has been the computation of the exact distribution of d and the power of the test based on d. The exact distribution of d has been developed by Imhof [7] and Pan Jie-Jian [12]. However, few of the generally available computer programs for regression analysis incorporate these methods,2 possibly because of computational costs, particularly for large samples. With the Durbin and Watson [4] tables the bounds test is restricted to time series regressions with 15 to 100 observations and a maximum of 5 regressors in addition to unity. Often regression studies do not meet these restrictions since samples with less than 15 observations commonly occur with annual time series and regressions with more than 5 regressors are often found in the context of simultaneous equations and of distributed lags.3 In this paper we present extended tables for the bounds test. Our tables can be used for samples with 6 to 200 observations and for as many as 20 regressors.