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Ambiguity, Learning, and Asset Returns

Econometrica 2012 80(2), 559-591 open access
We propose a novel generalized recursive smooth ambiguity model which permits a three-way separation among risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, and intertemporal substitution. We apply this utility model to a consumption-based asset-pricing model in which consumption and dividends follow hidden Markov regime-switching processes. Our calibrated model can match the mean equity premium, the mean risk-free rate, and the volatility of the equity premium observed in the data. In addition, our model can generate a variety of dynamic asset-pricing phenomena, including the procyclical variation of price–dividend ratios, the countercyclical variation of equity premia and equity volatility, the leverage effect, and the mean reversion of excess returns. The key intuition is that an ambiguity-averse agent behaves pessimistically by attaching more weight to the pricing kernel in bad times when his continuation values are low.

Robust Contracts in Continuous Time

Econometrica 2016 84(4), 1405-1440
We study a continuous‐time contracting problem under hidden action, where the principal has ambiguous beliefs about the project cash flows. The principal designs a robust contract that maximizes his utility under the worst‐case scenario subject to the agent's incentive and participation constraints. Robustness generates endogenous belief heterogeneity and induces a tradeoff between incentives and ambiguity sharing so that the incentive constraint does not always bind. We implement the optimal contract by cash reserves, debt, and equity. In addition to receiving ordinary dividends when cash reserves reach a threshold, outside equity holders also receive special dividends or inject cash in the cash reserves to hedge against model uncertainty and smooth dividends. The equity premium and the credit yield spread generated by ambiguity aversion are state dependent and high for distressed firms with low cash reserves.

Multivariate Rational Inattention

Econometrica 2022 90(2), 907-945
We study optimal control problems in the multivariate linear‐quadratic‐Gaussian framework under rational inattention. We propose a three‐step procedure to solve this problem using semidefinite programming and derive the optimal signal structure without strong prior restrictions. We analyze both the transition dynamics of the optimal posterior covariance matrix and its steady state. We characterize the optimal information structure for some special cases and develop numerical algorithms for general cases. Applying our methods to solve three multivariate economic models, we obtain some results qualitatively different from the literature.