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Wage and Price Controls in a Dynamic Macro Model

Econometrica 1978 46(1), 105
Wage and price controls in the form of inflation ceilings are introduced into a dynamic extension of a variant of the IS-LM model. The controls do not alter the location of the equilibrium; rather, they affect the path and speed of adjustment of the economy. When slack exists, controls can be useful for lowering the rate of inflation and increasing employment and aggregate demand. However, when excess demand is present, controls although reducing the excess demand pressures and lowering the inflation rate may necessitate some form of commodity rationing. AN ISSUE THAT has recently received a great deal of attention is the effectiveness of wage and price controls as a macroeconomic policy tool. This paper studies the question in order to determine whether the view that controls are useful has a theoretical basis. Controls as introduced here are considered a means by which the government can affect the path of adjustment of the economy towards the equilibrium, and not an instrument by which the government can alter the location of the equilibrium itself. It is argued that if the economy faces cost-push type of inflation, where the actual inflation rate is above the equilibrium inflation rate, and the economy is adjusting to the equilibrium at a pace considered too slow, the institution of controls can result not only in a fairly rapid reduction in the rate of inflation but also some increase in employment. On the other hand, if the economy faces demand-pull inflation controls can prevent the economy from moving to an undesirable equilibrium and in the process reduce excess demand pressures although not eliminate them. As indicated above, for a macro model to be suitable for studying this problem, it is necessary both that it allow for inflation and that it be dynamic, in the sense of yielding information about not only equilibrium values but also the adjustment path of the economy. The formulation utilized adds to a variant of the IS-LM model a Phillips curve, a government balance equation, and an equation to indicate how inflationary expectations adjust. These additions make the IS-LM model dynamic and also incorporate wage and price inflation into that framework. This paper follows the tradition of Lipsey [1] in assuming that the Phillips curve is a labor market equation that relates the actual rate of wage inflation to the employment rate (or unemployment rate) and the expected rate of inflation. The government balance equation insures that government outflows equal government inflows. For example, when government expenditures exceed tax collections, the government must increase the size of its outstanding nominal debt to make up the difference. Finally, it is assumed that the expected rate of price inflation adapts towards the actual rate.

Exploitation of Many Deposits of an Exhaustible Resource

Econometrica 1978 46(1), 201
[Given a known demand schedule for a mineral at each instant of time and many deposits with different known extraction costs per ton (different qualities) and different known sizes, how should exploitation be organized? How does an exogenous change in the size of deposit i or in the extraction costs per unit in deposit i affect the program of exploitation? These questions are investigated for the case of extraction costs constant per ton for deposit i. The comparative static analysis parallels that for a problem with many income classes in location theory.]

Discrete Parameter Variation: Efficient Estimation of a Switching Regression Model

Econometrica 1978 46(2), 427
[An efficient estimator for regressions in which the parameter vector can take any of several values is devised. It is shown that although the likelihood function is unbounded, the likelihood equations have a consistent root. An initial consistent estimator is provided. One Newton step provides efficient estimates. Applications to nonlinear models and contaminated normal models are suggested.]

Joint Production Technology: The Case of Petrochemicals

Econometrica 1978 46(2), 379
[This paper explores a new approach to the estimation of a joint production technology. Pseudo data, which are obtained by solving a petrochemical process model for alternative relative prices, are used to estimate a price possibility frontier with 3 inputs and 6 outputs. Unlike traditional data sources, pseudo data are not constrained by historical price variation, technologies, and environmental controls. As an econometric exercise, the approximation of the process model's detailed piecewise linear production surface by a single equation "generalized" functional form, the translog, raises a host of interesting empirical and methodological questions.]

Unequal Treatment in the Core

Econometrica 1978 46(6), 1475
[It is demonstrated that, under regularity assumptions on individuals' preferences, for an open dense set of exchange economies indexed by initial endowments, the core does not possess the equal treatment property. The assumptions made on individuals' preferences are subsequently shown to characterize an open dense subject of the space of preferences.]

Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory

Econometrica 1978 46(1), 185
We consider dynamic choice behavior under conditions of uncertainty, with emphasis on the timing of the resolution of uncertainty.Choice behavior in which an individual distinguishes between lotteries based on the times at which their uncertainty resolves is axiomatized and represented, thus the result is choice behavior which cannot be represented by a single cardinal utility function on the vector of payoffs.Both descriptive and normative treatments of the problem are given and are shown to be equivalent.Various specializations are provided, including an extension of "separable" utility and representation by a single cardinal utility function.