In a multiple-regression model the residual variance is an unknown function of the explanatory variables, and estimated by nearest-neighbor nonparametric regression. The resulting weighted least-squares estimator of the regression coefficients is shown to be adaptive, in the sense of having the same asymptotic distribution, to first order, as estimators based on knowledge of the actual variance function or a finite parameterization of it. A similar result was established by R. J. Carrol l (1982) using kernel estimation and under substantially more restrictive conditions on the data generating process than ours. Extensions to various other models seem to be possible. Copyright 1987 by The Econometric Society.

Sequential equilibria comprise consistent beliefs and a sequentially ra tional strategy profile. Consistent beliefs are limits of Bayes ratio nal beliefs for sequences of strategies that approach the equilibrium strategy. Beliefs are structurally consistent if they are rationaliz ed by some single conjecture concerning opponents' strategies. Consis tent beliefs are not necessarily structurally consistent, notwithstan ding a claim by Kreps and Robert Wilson (1982). Moreover, the spirit of structural consistency conflicts with that of sequential rationali ty. One avoids these difficulties by weakening structural consistency to allow convex combinations of opponents' strategies, but this intr oduces correlation into the strategies that justify out-of-equilibriu m beliefs. Copyright 1987 by The Econometric Society.

The expectati on of the excess holding yield on a long bond is postulated to depend upon its conditional variance. Engle's ARCH model is extended to allow the conditional variance to be a determinant of the mean and is called ARCH-M. Estimation and infer ence procedures are proposed, and the model is applied to three interest rate data sets. In most cases the ARCH process and the time varying risk premium are highly significant. A collection of LM diagnostic tests reveals the robustness of the model to various specification changes such as alternative volatility or ARCH measures, regime changes, and interest rate formulations. The model explains and interprets the recent econometric failures of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure. Copyright 1987 by The Econometric Society.

John H. Kagel, Ronald M. Harstad, Dan Levin, Information Impact and Allocation Rules in Auctions with Affiliated Private Values: A Laboratory Study, Econometrica, Vol. 55, No. 6 (Nov., 1987), pp. 1275-1304