[This paper begins by formulating a finite horizon linear programming model for economic development. The formulation allows for heterogeneous capital goods and for nonnegativity constraints upon investment in each sector. It is then proved that a certain set of conditions are sufficient to ensure that an optimal solution to this T period, finite horizon plan will also coincide with an optimal solution during the first T periods of an infinite horizon plan. Among the restrictive conditions imposed to prove this sufficiency theorem are the following: gradualist consumption paths, no primary factors that cannot themselves be produced within the economy, a Leontief technology, and a characterization of the optimal finite horizon solution as one in which the terminal investment and output levels are positive. An illustrative numerical example is provided.]

[Production correspondences are defined and their properties explored. Properties of the distance function of a production structure are studied and are related to properties of the correspondence. Homotheticity is generalized to allow discontinuities in returns to scale and to take cognizance of several outputs. The factorization of the distance function into the product of two functions, one depending only on output and the other only on input, is demonstrated. The cost function is then shown to give rise to a production structure. A Shephard-type duality theorem is proven which implies, among other things, that the cost function and the distance function are dually related; that is, given one, a minimization proglem yields the other. The duality theorem is then used to deduce necessary and sufficient conditions, in terms of the cost function, for a production correspondence to be homothetic. A few simple applications of the duality theorem are given which relate properties of the cost function to geometric properties of the correspondence.]

SINCE KOYCK'S pioneering work, distributed lag models have come to play an important role in econometrics and much work has been done to develop methods for analyzing them-see e.g. Koyck [15], Klein [12], Solow [20], Fuller and Martin [5], Malinvaud [18], Hannan [9], Liviatan [17], Amemiya and Fuller [1], Zellner and Park [25], Thornber [21], Waud [23], Dhrymes [3], and Griliches [7]. In the present paper we present maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation procedures for estimating the parameters of a typical distributed lag model under four alternative sets of assumptions regarding disturbance terms' properties. Then these procedures and assumptions are employed in analyses of a sample of United States quarterly consumption data to illustrate their application and to show the sensitivity of inferences to the assumptions made about disturbance terms' properties. We also compute posterior probabilities associated with four alternative models. The plan of the paper is as follows. In Section 2, the model to be analyzed is described and alternative assumptions about disturbance terms are introduced. Section 3 contains a discussion of maximum likelihood techniques and application of them in the analysis of U.S. quarterly consumption data. Then in Sections 4 and

Abstract : Contents: Analysis for Air Force Decisions, The Selection and Use of Strategic Air Bases, The Why and How of Model Building, The Relevance of Costs, Analysis and Design of Conflict Systems, Assumptions about Enemy Behavior, Gaming Methods and Applications, Strategies for Development, Mathematics and Systems Analysis, The Use of Computers, Costing Methods, Pitfalls in Systems Analysis.

[Two stage least squares methods are used to estimate a postwar quarterly model of U.S. labor demand, supply, and wage adjustment. Analytical techniques are used to derive the long-run equilibrium properties of the estimated model. Short run properties are obtained by approximating the model in the form of two simultaneous difference equations. Simulation methods show the response of the model to an increase in the size of the armed forces.]