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Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests for Econometric Models: Theory

Econometrica 1988 56(6), 1419
This paper extends the Pearson chi-square testing method to nondynam ic parametric econometric models, in particular, to models with covar iates. The paper establishes the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic when the test statistic is based on data-dependent random cells of a general form and on an arbitrary asymptotically normal estimator. These results a re attained by extending recent probabilistic results for the weak convergence of empirical processes indexed by sets. The chi-square test that is introduced can be used to test goodness-of-fit of a parametric model, as well as to test particular aspects of the parametric model that are of interest. Copyright 1988 by The Econometric Society.

Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets

Econometrica 1988 56(5), 1119
Spot asset trading is studied where the only external source of value is an independent draw from a common information dividend distribution at the end of each of fifteen trading periods. Fourteen of twenty-two experiments exhibit price bubbles. This tendency to bubble decreases with trader experience. The regression of changes in mean price on lagged excess bids (bids minus offers in the previous period) supports the hypothesis that the intercept is minus the one-period expected dividend value, and the slope is positive, where excess bids measures excess demand attributable to homegrown capital gains expectations. Copyright 1988 by The Econometric Society.