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Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities

Econometrica 2013 81(2), 609-666
In this paper, we propose an instrumental variable approach to constructing confidence sets (CS's) for the true parameter in models defined by conditional moment inequalities/equalities. We show that by properly choosing instrument functions, one can transform conditional moment inequalities/equalities into unconditional ones without losing identification power. Based on the unconditional moment inequalities/equalities, we construct CS's by inverting Cramér–von Mises-type or Kolmogorov–Smirnov-type tests. Critical values are obtained using generalized moment selection (GMS) procedures. We show that the proposed CS's have correct uniform asymptotic coverage probabilities. New methods are required to establish these results because an infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter affects the asymptotic distributions. We show that the tests considered are consistent against all fixed alternatives and typically have power against n−1/2-local alternatives to some, but not all, sequences of distributions in the null hypothesis. Monte Carlo simulations for five different models show that the methods perform well in finite samples.

Homo Moralis--Preference Evolution Under Incomplete Information and Assortative Matching

Econometrica 2013 81(6), 2269-2302 open access
What preferences will prevail in a society of rational individuals when preference evolution is driven by the resulting payoffs? We show that when individuals' preferences are their private information, a convex combination of selfishness and morality stands out as evolutionarily stable. We call individuals with such preferences homo moralis. At one end of the spectrum is homo oeconomicus, who acts so as to maximize his or her own payoff. At the opposite end is homo kantiensis, who does what would be “the right thing to do,” in terms of payoffs, if all others would do likewise. We show that the stable degree of morality—the weight placed on the moral goal—is determined by the degree of assortativity in the process whereby individuals are matched to interact.