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Impatience versus Incentives

Econometrica 2015 83(4), 1601-1617
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Modeling Denomination Structures

Econometrica 2005 73(3), 949-960
Previous work on the denomination structure of currency treats as exogenous the distribution of transactions and the denominations held by people. Here, by way of a matching model, both are endogenous. In the model, trades in pairwise meetings alternate in time with the opportunity to freely choose a portfolio of denominations and there is a trade-off between the benefits of small-denomination money for transacting and the costliness of carrying a large quantity of small-denomination money. For a given denomination structure, a monetary steady state is shown to exist. The model implies that too small denominations are abandoned.

Knightian Analysis of the Vickrey Mechanism

Econometrica 2015 83(5), 1727-1754
We analyze the Vickrey mechanism for auctions of multiple identical goods when the players have both Knightian uncertainty over their own valuations and incomplete preferences.In this model, the Vickrey mechanism is no longer dominant-strategy, and we prove that all dominant-strategy mechanisms are inadequate.However, we also prove that, in undominated strategies, the social welfare produced by the Vickrey mechanism in the worst case is not only very good, but also essentially optimal.

Rural Pensions, Labor Reallocation, and Aggregate Income: An Empirical and Quantitative Analysis of China

Econometrica 2025 93(5), 1663-1696
We exploit the implementation of a rural pension policy in China to estimate the average rural‐to‐urban migration cost for workers affected by the policy and the average underlying sectoral productivity difference. Our estimates, based on a large panel data set, reveal significant migration costs and substantial sectoral productivity differences, with sorting playing a minor role in accounting for sectoral labor income gaps. We construct and structurally estimate a general equilibrium household model with endogenous labor supply and migration. The results of this model align with the reduced‐form findings and illustrate how the rural pension policy influences migration, GDP, and welfare through improving within‐household labor allocation. Counterfactual analyses based on the model show that the positive effects of the policy remain even if migration costs were significantly lower, and that scaling up the rural pension policy would lead to even larger improvements in labor allocation, GDP, and welfare.