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A Model of Accrual Measurement with Implications for the Evolution of the Book-to-Market Ratio

Stephen G. Ryan
Journal of Accounting Research 1995 33(1), 95
This paper constructs a model of accrual measurement and tests its implications for the evolution of the book-to-market ratio. The model captures the intuition that book value is untimely or smoothed relative to market value, so that movements in market value have relatively high variance and low predictability, compared with movements in book value. Empirical tests of the model use lagged market value changes to forecast the mean reversion of the book-to-market ratio. This paper complements recent research investigating the role of book-to-market ratios in security analysis. Accounting theorists (e.g., Edwards and Bell [1961] and Feltham and Ohlson [1995]) have long recognized the critical role of book-to-market ratios as predictors of abnormal earnings in earnings-based valuation models. Tests of such valuation models (e.g., Ou and Penman [1993]) confront the practical problem of determining the horizon beyond which abnormal earnings are expected to be zero. The model in this paper implies that this horizon is determined by the remaining useful life of assets, and that the expected path of abnormal earnings over this horizon reflects the pattern of expiration of the useful lives of assets in place.