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The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Operating Cash Flows Has Been Increasing—Not Decreasing

Journal of Accounting Research 2005 43(5), 753-780
ABSTRACT We investigate the relationship between earnings and one‐year‐ahead operating cash flows from 1973 to 2000. Although the extant research indicates a weakening relationship between contemporaneous earnings and stock prices over time, we find that the relationship between current earnings and future operating cash flows has increased over time. This result holds for numerous divisions of our sample. Out‐of‐sample predictions of operating cash flows generally show increasing forecast accuracy over time. Increasing accounting conservatism appears to play a role in this phenomenon.

Does the Market Value Financial Expertise on Audit Committees of Boards of Directors?

Journal of Accounting Research 2005 43(2), 153-193
ABSTRACT We examine three‐day cumulative abnormal returns around the announcement of 702 newly appointed outside directors assigned to audit committees during a period before implementation of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act (SOX). Motivated by the SOX requirement that public companies disclose whether they have a financial expert on their audit committee, we test whether the market reacts favorably to the appointment of directors with financial expertise to the audit committee. In addition, because it is controversial whether SOX should define financial experts narrowly to include primarily accounting financial experts (as initially proposed) or more broadly to include nonaccounting financial experts (as ultimately passed), we separately examine appointments of each type of expert. We find a positive market reaction to the appointment of accounting financial experts assigned to audit committees but no reaction to nonaccounting financial experts assigned to audit committees, consistent with accounting‐based financial skills, but not broader financial skills, improving the audit committee's ability to ensure high‐quality financial reporting. In addition, we find that this positive reaction is concentrated among firms with relatively strong corporate governance, consistent with accounting financial expertise complementing strong governance, possibly because strong governance helps channel the expertise toward enhancing shareholder value. Together, these findings are consistent with financial expertise on audit committees improving corporate governance but only when both the expert and the appointing firm possess characteristics that facilitate the effective use of the expertise.

Carrot or Stick? Contract Frame and Use of Decision‐Influencing Information in a Principal‐Agent Setting

Journal of Accounting Research 2005 43(5), 709-733
ABSTRACT A fundamental management accounting issue is how to incorporate decision‐influencing information (e.g., an ex post state signal) into employment contracts. Our experiment examines the effects of contract framing on such information use in a principal‐agent setting. In each of 40 rounds, participants (as employer and worker) negotiate a contract that specifies pay depending on an ex post state signal. State‐signal pay is framed as either a bonus or a penalty over two groups. The results show that the bonus frame facilitates information use, because of worker loss aversion. Although both groups initially underweigh the state signal, the bonus group quickly converges toward the optimal weight, whereas the penalty group persistently underweighs the state signal.

Earnings Quality, Insider Trading, and Cost of Capital

Journal of Accounting Research 2005 43(5), 651-673
ABSTRACT Previous research argues that earnings quality, measured as the unsigned abnormal accruals, proxies for information asymmetries that affect cost of capital. We examine this argument directly in two stages. In the first stage, we estimate firms' exposure to an earnings quality factor in the context of a Fama‐French three‐factor model augmented by the return on a factor‐mimicking portfolio that is long in low earnings quality firms and short in high earnings quality firms. In the second stage, we examine whether the earnings quality factor is priced and whether insider trading is more profitable for firms with higher exposure to that factor. Generally speaking, we find evidence consistent with pricing of the earnings quality factor and insiders trading more profitably in firms with higher exposure to that factor.

The Association between Corporate Boards, Audit Committees, and Management Earnings Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis

Journal of Accounting Research 2005 43(3), 453-486 open access
We study how corporate boards and audit committees are associated with voluntary financial disclosure practices, proxied here by management earnings forecasts. We find that in firms with more effective board and audit committee structures, managers are more likely to make or update an earnings forecast, and their forecast is less likely to be precise, it is more accurate, and it elicits a more favorable market response. Together, our empirical evidence is broadly consistent with the notion that effective corporate governance is associated with higher financial disclosure quality.

Earnings Management through Transaction Structuring: Contingent Convertible Debt and Diluted Earnings per Share

Journal of Accounting Research 2005 43(2), 205-243
ABSTRACT In this article we examine whether firms structure their convertible bond transactions to manage diluted earnings per share (EPS). We find that the likelihood of firms issuing contingent convertible bonds (COCOs), which are often excluded from diluted EPS calculations under Statement of Financial Accounting Standard (SFAS) 128, is significantly associated with the reduction that would occur in diluted EPS if the bonds were traditionally structured. We also document that firms' use of EPS‐based compensation contracts significantly affects the likelihood of COCO issuance and find weak evidence that reputation costs, measured using earnings restatement data, play a role in the structuring decision. These results are robust to controlling for alternative motivations for issuing COCOs, including tax and dilution arguments. In addition, an examination of announcement returns reveals that investors view the net benefits and costs of COCOs as offsetting one another. Our results contribute to the literature on earnings management, diluted EPS, financial reporting costs, and financial innovation.

Do Insiders Manipulate Earnings When They Sell Their Shares in an Initial Public Offering?

Journal of Accounting Research 2005 43(1), 1-33
ABSTRACT In this article we examine whether insider share selling in an initial public offering (IPO) influences R&D expenditures. Insiders (managers and venture capitalists) who sell their pre‐offering shareholdings might try to increase the IPO offer price (1) by overinvesting in R&D to signal the firm's prospects (the signaling hypothesis) or (2) by underinvesting in R&D to increase current reported earnings (the earnings fixation hypothesis). We find that, for a sample of 243 IPOs from 1986 to 1990, change in R&D spending in the year of the IPO is negatively related to managerial selling. Because reductions in R&D spending increase current earnings at the expense of future earnings, our evidence suggests that managers believe that investors place more emphasis on current earnings and less emphasis on R&D and therefore spend less on R&D. We also document a positive association between discretionary current accruals in the offering year and managerial selling, suggesting that selling managers manipulate accruals as well.

Do External Auditors Perform a Corporate Governance Role in Emerging Markets? Evidence from East Asia

Journal of Accounting Research 2005 43(1), 35-72 open access
ABSTRACT In emerging markets, the agency conflicts between controlling owners and the minority shareholders are difficult to mitigate through conventional corporate control mechanisms such as boards of directors and takeovers. We examine whether external independent auditors are employed as monitors or as bonding mechanisms, or both, to alleviate the agency problems. Using a broad sample from eight East Asian economies, we document that firms with agency problems embedded in the ownership structures are more likely to employ Big 5 auditors. This relation is evident among firms that raise equity capital frequently. Consistently, firms hiring Big 5 auditors receive smaller share price discounts associated with the agency conflicts. Also, we find that Big 5 auditors take into consideration their clients' agency problems when making audit fee and audit report decisions. Taken together, these results suggest that Big 5 auditors do have a corporate governance role in emerging markets.

The Nature of the Interaction between Mandatory and Voluntary Disclosures

Journal of Accounting Research 2005 43(4), 593-621 open access
This paper demonstrates the crucial role that firms' mandatory disclosures play in determining their voluntary disclosure strategies. It also shows how a firm's propensity for providing voluntary disclosures relates to various features of the mandatory disclosure environment and disclosure regulation. The special case of choosing between aggregated and disaggregated disclosures serves as an illustration of the model's applicability.

Earnings Management? The Shapes of the Frequency Distributions of Earnings Metrics Are Not Evidence Ipso Facto

Journal of Accounting Research 2005 43(4), 557-592
We provide evidence that the shapes (particularly around zero) of the frequency distributions of earnings metrics examined in the extant earnings management literature are affected by (1) deflation (using, for example, price or market capitalization), (2) sample selection criteria that lead to differential inclusion/exclusion of observations to the left of zero versus observations to the right of zero (implicit in studies focusing on firms followed by I/B/E/S and explicit in studies partitioning on a variable differing between loss observations and profit observations), (3) differences between the characteristics of observations to the left of zero and observations to the right of zero (such as market pricing and analyst optimism/pessimism), or (4) a combination of these factors. Since the shapes of the frequency distributions of earnings metrics at zero are likely due to one of the above effects, we conclude that the shapes cannot be used as ipso facto evidence of earnings management.