ABSTRACT We develop a measure of how information events impact investors' expectations of risk. The measure is broadly applicable and simple to implement. We derive it from an option‐pricing model, where investors anticipate an announcement that simultaneously conveys information on the announcer's expected future cash flows and risk profile. We empirically implement the measure using firms' earnings announcements, showing that it closely aligns with our model's predictions and offers strong forecasting power for firms' risk profiles, costs of capital, and future investments. We further highlight pitfalls of using simple changes in option‐implied volatilities to study information gleaned from earnings announcements. Finally, we apply our measure to study disclosure regulation, the efficacy of text‐based proxies, and market‐wide events, which we use to illustrate our measure's uses, and illuminate its potential limitations.

Research Methodology, Security market model, Prediction errors, Daily returns data

Research Methodology, Market model prediction errors, Omitted variables

Complexity has been linked to the quality of an income tax system (Dean, Keenan, and Kenney [1980]), including its possible influence on the system's ability to generate revenues (New York State Bar Association [1972]). Given the IRS' recent estimate that $81 billion in annual revenue is lost through noncompliance (IRS [1983, p. 21]), the question of whether tax complexity has a significant effect on taxpayers' reporting positions is a potentially important issue. Complexity represents but one strand in a web of interrelated factors and propositions influencing compliant tax reporting in a democratic society. Nevertheless, it has been singled out as a factor affecting compliance and a study of its effect thereon can be viewed as one step in an ongoing program of study of noncompliance. This study involved two distinct phases. The first phase was devoted to obtaining operational definitions of tax complexity, using multidimensional scaling. These definitions of tax complexity were then used in the second phase of the study to test for potential effects of complexity on reporting position selections in four different tax situations. While phase 1 is critical to phase 2 of my study, this paper highlights the results of the latter. Details of phase 1 can be obtained in Milliron [1984]. In section 2 I discuss previous literature involving tax complexity. Section 3 provides an overview of the methodology and the research issues studied. Sections 4 and 5 describe the data collection procedures

Corporate failure, Reporting delays, Information dissemination, Annual reports

Information evaluation, Information systems, Group decision making, Group performance

Asset valuation, Replacement costs, Fixed asset lives, Depreciation

Information evaluation problem, Knowledge, Decision making

Information systems, Decision making, Lab experiment

Historical cost, Valuation