Extensive evidence suggests that managers strategically choose the complexity of their descriptive disclosures. However, their motives in doing so appear mixed, as complex disclosures are used to obfuscate in some cases and to provide information in others. Building on these observations, we first identify a novel stylized fact: disclosure complexity is non-monotonic in firm performance. We develop a model of disclosure complexity that incorporates the dual roles of complexity and can explain this stylized fact. In the model, a manager discloses to investors of heterogeneous sophistication and can adjust the complexity of the disclosure to either provide more precise information or to obfuscate. When the firm's investor base is largely unsophisticated, the manager issues a complex disclosure only upon observing negative news. In contrast, when the firm's investor base is more sophisticated, the manager issues a complex disclosure upon observing either highly positive or negative news. As a result, the market may react more positively to complex information releases than to simple releases, complex disclosures generate heightened return volatility, and firms with more inherently complex information are more likely to use their discretion to simplify their disclosures.

When valuing a firm, investors must assess not only its expected future cash flows but also the systematic risk inherent in these cash flows. In this paper, we model the process by which investors may learn about firms' betas from earnings and how this learning process affects the relationship between earnings, announcement returns, and expected future returns. The model's main predictions are: (i) earnings response coefficients vary with macroeconomic conditions and are lower in upswings than downturns; (ii) earnings positively and negatively predict future returns in economic upswings and downturns, respectively, leading to return autocorrelation; and (iii) real earnings management rises in economic downturns and contributes to systematic risk in the economy. These predictions are directly attributable to investors' uncertainty regarding firms' exposures to systematic risk.