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Abandoning the transactions-based accounting model: Weighing the evidence

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1996 22(1-3), 155-175
I develop a benchmark for evaluating whether fair values disclosed by banks differ from investors' estimates of the market value of financial assets and liabilities. Using this benchmark, I conclude that the hypothesis that disclosed fair values closely approximate investors' estimates should be rejected. I present evidence suggesting that the procedure used in establishing fair values results in an understatement of the value of financial assets an an overstatement of liabilities. I also conclude that the reaction of bank stocks to the adoption of SFAS 105, 107, and 115 is more consistent with regulatory concerns and not with potential adverse effects of those statements for contracting.

Mandated accounting changes and debt covenants

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1984 6(1), 39-65
The relationships among mandated accounting changes, bond covenants and security prices has been the focus of several studies. These studies have provided mixed evidence on the existence of a bond covenant effect on security prices. This paper suggests that inconclusive prior results are a consequence of inappropriately measuring the default risk of debt. Using an option pricing framework, it is shown that the debt to equity alone is not an adequate measure of default risk. In particular, both the debt to equity ratio and the total risk of the firm are necessary to adequately model the bond covenant effects of an accounting change. These theoretical propositions are supported by the empirical analysis of the security market reaction to changes in oil and gas accounting.

The market for audit services

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1990 12(1-3), 281-308
This paper argues that audit firms achieve competitive advantages through specialization, and that clients purchase audit services from the least cost supplier. Client-auditor realignments thus represent efficient responses to changes in client operations and activities over time. Results obtained from analyzing the financial characteristics and share price performance of corporations that changed auditors between 1973 and 1982 support the view that realignments can generally be attributed to cross-temporal changes in client characteristics and differences in audit firm cost structures.

Autocorrelation structure of forecast errors from time-series models: Alternative assessments of the causes of post-earnings announcement drift

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1999 28(3), 329-358
This paper demonstrates that the evidence supporting the hypothesis that post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) is caused by investors’ failure to incorporate the implications of current earnings for future earnings is (also) consistent with researchers’ over-differencing an already stationary time-series. Specifically, we show the evidence is driven by a subset of firms where over-differencing of quarterly earnings in estimating earnings surprises is most likely to have occurred. Given the persistence of the PEAD over time, our alternative explanation suggests that the prior research investigating the causes for the PEAD overestimates investors’ naivete.

Empirical research on accounting choice

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2001 31(1-3), 255-307
We review research from the 1990s that examines the determinants and consequences of accounting choice, structuring our analysis around the three types of market imperfections that influence managers’ choices: agency costs, information asymmetries, and externalities affecting non-contracting parties. We conclude that research in the 1990s made limited progress in expanding our understanding of accounting choice because of limitations in research design and a focus on replication rather than extension of current knowledge. We discuss opportunities for future research, recommending the exploration of the economic implications of accounting choice by addressing the three different reasons why accounting matters.

Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1999 28(1), 51-82
In this study of sell-side analysts’ forecasts, we explore the effects of analyst aptitude, learning-by-doing, and the internal environment of the brokerage house on forecast accuracy. Our results indicate that analysts’ aptitude and brokerage house characteristics are associated with forecast accuracy, while learning-by-doing is only associated with forecast accuracy when we do not control for analysts’ company-specific aptitude in forecasting. It is unlikely that this result is caused by measurement errors because it is robust when we use a sub-sample where we can accurately measure experience.

Endogenous entry/exit as an alternative explanation for the disciplining role of independent analysts

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2008 45(2-3), 317-323
Gu and Xue [2008. The superiority and disciplining role of independent analysts. Journal of Accounting and Economics, this issue, doi:10.1016/j.jacceco.2008.02.002] study the disciplining effect of independent analysts on the accuracy and forecast relevance of the forecasts of non-independent analysts. One of the intriguing results is that while independent analysts issue inferior forecasts, their presence appears to reduce the forecast bias, improve the forecast accuracy and increase the forecast relevance of forecasts issued by non-independent analysts. We explore alternative explanations for the Gu–Xue results. Our evidence of endogenous entry and exit of independent analysts provides a more compelling explanation for the reported results.

Internet downturn: finding valuation factors in Spring 2000

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2003 34(1-3), 189-236
During Spring 2000, the Internet Stock Index declined 45%. Using a sample of internet firms, this paper investigates whether this decline was associated with new disclosures, such as earnings, analyst forecast revisions, and web-traffic measures, or to a “reassessment” by investors of pre-existing information. We find only modest evidence that the decline was associated with new disclosures. However, returns and post-decline stock prices are significantly explained by 1999 annual report data. When earnings are decomposed into gross profit and various expenses, traditional financial information contributes significantly more in explaining the cross-sectional returns and price levels than non-financial information.

Weighing the evidence on the relation between external corporate financing activities, accruals and stock returns

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2006 42(1-2), 87-105 open access
Bradshaw, Richardson, and Sloan (BRS) find a negative relation between their comprehensive measure of corporate financing activities and future stock returns and future profitability. Noticing that accounting accruals are increases in net operating assets on a company's balance sheet, we question whether it is possible to distinguish between the ‘external financing anomaly’ documented by BRS and the ‘accrual anomaly’ first documented by Sloan [1996. Do stock prices fully reflect information in accruals and cash flows about future earnings? The Accounting Review 71, 289–315]. We show that once controlling for total accruals, the relation between external financing activities and future stock returns is attenuated and not statistically significant. These findings are consistent with Richardson and Sloan [2003. External financing, capital investment and future stock returns. Working Paper, University of Pennsylvania and University of Michigan].