We provide a firm level analysis of the impact of capital market liberalization in 18 emerging markets. Consistent with models of international asset pricing, we find that firms’ stock returns increase during liberalization and that a majority of firms have lower mean returns and lower dividend yields after liberalization. We also find that emerging market firms have increased exposure to the world market and decreased exposure to the home market following liberalization. These changes in returns and exposures support the predictions of theoretical international asset pricing models. We also test and find support for the importance of size, local risk, foreign exchange risk, and cross-listing status in explaining the cross-section of changes in returns.

Using a GARCH approach, we estimate a time-varying two-factor international asset pricing model for weekly equity index returns of 16 OECD countries. A trade-weighted basket of exchange rates and the MSCI world market index are used as risk factors. We find significant currency risk exposures in country equity index returns. We then explain these currency betas using several country-specific macroeconomic variables with a panel approach. We find that imports, exports, credit ratings, and tax revenues significantly affect currency risks in a way that is consistent with some economic hypotheses. Similar conclusions are obtained by using lagged explanatory variables, and thus these macroeconomic variables may be useful as predictors of currency risk exposures. Our results are robust to a number of alternative specifications.

We analyze how changes in capital requirements and policy rate shocks affect international lenders’ decisions to drop out of syndicated loans. Increases in capital requirements in the lender country and decreases in borrower country policy rates imply a greater likelihood that foreign lenders stop supplying capital in international syndicated loans. These results are robust to the inclusion of borrower country, lender country, and loan-round fixed effects. Using lender country capital regulations as instruments, we find evidence of significant economic spillover effects as international lender exits imply smaller loan amounts and shorter maturities. Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and culture variables also help explain lenders’ decisions to exit a syndicate.