Knowledge that Transforms

When a firm writes incomplete debt contracts, its limited ability to commit to not strategically default and renegotiate its debt requires the firm to pay higher yields to its creditors. Hedged by credit derivatives, creditors have stronger bargaining power in the case of debt renegotiation, which ex-ante demotivates the firm to default strategically. In this paper, I aim to investigate theoretically and empirically whether credit derivatives could help reduce the cost of debt contracting stemming from the possibility of strategic default. I find that firms with a priori high strategic default incentives experience a relatively large reduction in their corporate bond spreads after the introduction of credit default swaps (CDS) written on their debt. This result is robust to controlling for the endogeneity of CDS introduction. My finding is consistent with the presence of CDS reducing the strategic default-related cost of corporate debt, suggesting the beneficial role of credit derivatives as a commitment device for the borrower to repay the lender.

We employ Amortizing Participation Mortgage (APM) to offer a novel ex post renegotiation method of a foreclosure. APM belongs to the family of home loan credit facilities advocated in the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act 2010. In our framework, APMs reduce the endemic agency costs of debt by improving affordability. These benefits increase the demand for real estate in bust times and reduce fragility of the financial system thereby preventing foreclosures. We evaluate APMs in a stochastic control framework and provide solutions for an optimal amortization schedule. We generalize our approach to partially amortizing and commercial mortgages which encompass balloon payments. Finally, we provide concrete numerical examples of home loan modifications. We also offer detailed sensitivity analysis to market parameters such as house price volatility and interest rates.

This paper investigates the time-series predictability of commodity futures excess returns from factor models that exploit two risk factors – the equally weighted average excess return on long positions in a universe of futures contracts and the return difference between the high- and low-basis portfolios. Adopting a standard set of statistical evaluation metrics, we find weak evidence that the factor models provide out-of-sample forecasts of monthly excess returns significantly better than the benchmark of random walk with drift model. We also show, in a dynamic asset allocation environment, that the information contained in the commodity-based risk factors does not generate systematic economic value to risk-averse investors pursuing a commodity stand-alone strategy or a diversification strategy.

Within the new Basel regulatory framework for market risks, non-securitization credit positions in the trading book are subject to a separate default risk charge (formally incremental default risk charge). Banks using the internal model approach are required to use a two-factor model and a 99.9% VaR capital charge. This model prescription is intended to reduce risk-weighted asset variability, a known feature of internal models, and improve their comparability among financial institutions. In this paper, we analyze the theoretical foundations and relevance of these proposals. We investigate the practical implications of the two-factor and correlation calibration constraints through numerical applications. We introduce the Hoeffding decomposition of the aggregate unconditional loss to provide a systematic-idiosyncratic representation. In particular, we examine the impacts of a J-factor correlation structure on risk measures and risk factor contributions for long-only and long-short credit-sensitive portfolios.

In this paper, we compute a non-parametric Metafrontier Malmquist index to evaluate the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) change among UK-based trademarking and non-trademarking commercial banks between 2005 and 2013. The use of the metafrontier approach allows us to: a) identify the drivers of TFP growth for each group of banks, b) compare the TFP growth of each group to the TFP growth experienced by the whole industry, and c) assess the extent to which the former catches up with the latter measured along the metafrontier. Our results suggest that TFP has been increasing among trademarking banks up to the onset of the financial crisis but this process has since reversed. The catch-up indexes suggest that both groups of banks were catching up with the metafrontier up to the financial crisis although the drivers of this process differed between the two groups. After the financial crisis, improvements in technology have been driven by a small number of commercial banks i.e. the non-trademarking banks. These results suggest that a large section of the commercial banking sector has not been able to overcome the effects of the financial crisis.

We show that the introduction of a leverage constraint improves the practical implementation of characteristics-based portfolios. The addition of the constraint leads to significantly lower transaction costs, to a reduction of negative portfolio weights, and to a decrease in volatility and misspecification risk. Furthermore, it allows investors to implement any desired level of leverage. In this study, we include 12 characteristics, thereby extending the classical size, book-to-market and momentum paradigm. We report several key indicators such as the proportion of negative weights, Sharpe ratio, volatility, transaction costs, the transaction cost-adjusted certainty equivalent returns, and the Herfindahl–Hirschman index. Analyzing the sensitivity of these key indicators to the choice of multiple combinations of the 12 characteristics, to risk aversion, and to estimation sample size, we show that constrained policies are much less sensitive to these parameters than their unconstrained counterparts. Finally, for quadratic utility, we derive a semi-closed analytical form for the portfolio weights. Overall, we provide a comprehensive extension of characteristics-based portfolio choice and contribute to a better understanding and implementation of the allocation process.

This paper studies the role that risk and mispricing play in the negative relation between extreme positive returns and future returns. We document a strong ‘MAX effect’ in Australian equities over 1991–2013 that is robust to risk adjustment, controlling for other influential stock characteristics and, importantly, manifests in a partition of the 500 largest stocks. While there is no evidence that MAX proxies for sensitivity to risk, the findings are highly consistent with a mispricing explanation. Adapting the recent methodological innovation of Stambaugh et al. (2015) to classify stocks by their degree of mispricing, we show that the MAX effect concentrates amongst the most-overpriced stocks but actually reverses amongst the most-underpriced stocks. Consistent with arbitrage asymmetry, the magnitude of the MAX effect amongst overpriced stocks exceeds that amongst underpriced stocks, leading to the overall negative relation that has been well documented.

Defining systematic risk management (SRM) skill as persistently low fund systematic risk, we find evidence of time varying allocation of hedge fund management effort across the business cycle. In weak market states, skilled managers focus on minimization of systematic risk via dynamic reallocations across asset classes at the cost of fund alpha and foregoing market timing opportunities. As markets strengthen, attention shifts to asset selection within consistent asset classes. The superior performance of low systematic risk funds previously documented arises due to the superior asset selection ability of managers in strong market states. Incremental allocations by investors arise due to this superior performance and not due to recognition of SRM skill.

Using a gravity model, we analyze the determinants of the probability that commercial banks in 89 acquiring countries and 118 target countries will undertake M&As over a 30-year period (1981–2010) and of the value of these M&As. We find that the value of cross-border M&As increases with the size of the acquiring country, and that both the probability and value of M&As vary positively with the depth of the financial market in acquirer countries and the presence of corporate and non-corporate customers from acquiring countries in target countries, and negatively with the geographic, psychic, and time zone distances between acquirer and target countries. Our study highlights the role of non-corporate customers and of psychic distance in the cross-border expansion of commercial banks through M&As.

This paper examines the relation between chief executive officer (CEO) inside debt holdings and corporate debt maturity. We provide robust evidence that inside debt has a positive effect on short-maturity debt and that this effect is concentrated in financially unconstrained firms that face lower refinancing risk. Our analysis further shows that CEO inside debt helps reduce the cost of debt financing. Overall, our results indicate that managerial holdings of inside debt facilitate access to external debt financing and reduce refinancing risk, thus incentivizing managers to use less costly shorter term debt.