Knowledge that Transforms

This paper defines asymptotic marginal expected shortfall (AMES) for banks within a financial system and provides corresponding estimation method based on multivariate extreme value theory. The estimation method does not assume a specific dependence structure among bank equity returns. Both theoretical AMES and the estimator possess additive property and thus can serve as a tool to allocate system-wide risk to individual institutions. We apply the AMES to 30 global systemically important financial institutions (G-SIFIs). We show that the AMES outperforms the MES in predicting extreme losses during extreme systemic events. By taking the AMES as the reference point for allocating systemic risk to individual institutions, we show that an allocation according to simple bank characteristics such as size and individual risk can be imperfect. The allocation unfairness of individual risk or size across all the G-SIFIs has increased since 2008.

Using a comprehensive dataset of orders and trades in the Indian government bond market, this study presents new evidence on the effect of funding liquidity on market liquidity. We find no evidence that lower short-term interest rates – the key instruments of monetary policy – boost market liquidity. However, consistent with models that stress the role of intermediary capital, we find that market liquidity measures have a strong, positive association with short-term borrowing by primary dealers. We provide additional evidence linking these firms’ borrowing to their balance sheet strength and secondary market participation. The results suggest that localized funding conditions specific to marginal suppliers of intermediation services are more important for market liquidity than the broader economy-wide funding environment.

We study the effects of the US Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchase programs during 2008–2014 on bank liquidity creation. Banks create liquidity when they transform the liquid reserves resulted from quantitative easing (QE) into illiquid assets. As the composition of banks’ loan portfolio affects the amount of liquidity it creates, the impact of quantitative easing on liquidity creation is not a priori clear. Using a difference-in-difference identification strategy, we find that banks more affected by the policy increased lending relative to those less affected, mainly during the first and third round of QE. However, we only find a strong effect of the policy on liquidity creation during the third round of QE. This points to a weaker impact on the real economy during the first two rounds, when more exposed banks transformed the reserves created through QE into less illiquid assets, such as real estate mortgages.

This paper examines the pricing of global syndicated loans during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that loan spreads rise by over 11 basis points in response to a one standard deviation increase in the lender's exposure to COVID-19 and over 5 basis points for an equivalent increase in the borrower's exposure. This implies excess interestof about USD 5.16 million and USD 2.37 million respectively for a loan of average size and duration. The aggravating effect of the pandemic is exacerbated with the level of government restrictions to tackle the virus's spread, with firms’ financial constraints and reliance on debt financing, whereas it is mitigated for relationship borrowers, borrowers listed in multiple exchanges or headquartered in countries that can attract institutional investors.

This paper examines the impact of financial sector policy announcements on bank stocks around the world during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. Overall, we find that liquidity support, borrower assistance programs and monetary easing moderated the adverse impact from the crisis, but their impact varied considerably across banks and countries. By contrast, countercyclical prudential measures led to negative abnormal returns in bank stocks, suggesting that markets price the downside risks associated with these policies.

We examine how public liquidity should be distributed to firms when immediate production entails externalities, such as by spreading a virus. Direct provision of liquidity can address externalities, but traditional distribution of liquidity (through banks) has informational advantages. We show that which mode is preferred is determined by the variance (but not the level) of firm characteristics in the economy. Traditional provision is always part of the optimal policy when liquidity modes can be combined, and involves promising low interest rates for when the pandemic is over in order to incentivize temporary production shutdowns at firms.

We argue that mutual fund managers should trade actively only when the market presents opportunities to pick stocks with positive alpha. In this paper, we propose stock-selection opportunity measures and show that a significant portion of mutual funds time their active trading, i.e., they trade more when the market presents more stock-selection opportunities. We show that positive timers outperform negative timers by about 82 bps in annualized four-factor alpha over the subsequent six-month horizon and, more importantly, that stock-selection timing contributes significantly to fund performance even after controlling for fund managers’ stock-picking ability. Finally, we present evidence that on average funds with very high portfolio turnover are actually poor timers, whereas younger funds and funds with larger family size exhibit better skills in timing stock-selection.

We investigate the impact of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements on the U.S. Treasury market’s efficiency. Using intraday data and controlling for microstructure noise, we employ a robust method to construct market inefficiency measures. We find that the U.S. Treasury market is less efficient in the five-minute interval before news arrival. Our findings are robust for different sample periods, macroeconomic news announcements, and market inefficiency measures. We find that investor heterogeneity provides a possible explanation for the decreased market efficiency before scheduled news announcements.

We document a long-lasting association between a common societal phenomenon, early-life family disruption, and investment behavior. Controlling for socioeconomic status and family background, we find fund managers who experienced the death or divorce of their parents during childhood exhibit a stronger disposition effect, take lower risk, and are more likely to sell their holdings following risk-increasing firm events. The results are consistent with persistent symptoms of post-traumatic stress and strengthen as treatment intensifies. The evidence adds to our understanding of the role of social factors and “nurture” in finance as well as the origin of investment biases.

A new type of momentum based on the signs of past returns is introduced. This momentum is driven primarily by sign dependence, which is positively related to average return and negatively related to return volatility. An empirical application using a universe of commodity and financial futures offers supporting evidence for the existence of such momentum. Investment strategies based on return signal momentum result in higher returns and Sharpe ratios and lower drawdown relative to time series momentum and other benchmark strategies. Overall, return signal momentum can benefit investors as an effective strategy for speculation and hedging.