Knowledge that Transforms

This paper analyzes how different levels of debtor protection across US states affect small firms’ access to credit, as well as the price and non-price terms of their loans. We use an individual-specific measure of debtor protection that has its maximum value when the borrower’s home equity is lower than the state homestead exemption (the debtor’s home equity is fully protected), and is decreasing in the difference between the home equity and the homestead exemption (the amount that the creditor can seize). We find that unlimited liability small businesses have lower access to credit in states with more debtor-friendly bankruptcy laws. In addition, these businesses face tighter loan terms – they are more likely to pledge business collateral, have shorter maturities, and borrow smaller amounts. For limited liability small businesses, we also find a reduction in credit availability, but of smaller magnitude, together with an increase in the loan rate.

In this paper, we model price dispersion effects in over-the-counter (OTC) markets to show that, in the presence of inventory risk for dealers and search costs for investors, traded prices may deviate from the expected market valuation of an asset. We interpret this deviation as a liquidity effect and develop a new liquidity measure quantifying the price dispersion in the context of the US corporate bond market. This market offers a unique opportunity to study liquidity effects since, from October 2004 onwards, all OTC transactions in this market have to be reported to a common database known as the Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE). Furthermore, market-wide average price quotes are available from Markit Group Limited, a financial information provider. Thus, it is possible, for the first time, to directly observe deviations between transaction prices and the expected market valuation of securities. We quantify and analyze our new liquidity measure for this market and find significant price dispersion effects that cannot be simply captured by bid–ask spreads. We show that our new measure is indeed related to liquidity by regressing it on commonly-used liquidity proxies and find a strong relation between our proposed liquidity measure and bond characteristics, as well as trading activity variables. Furthermore, we evaluate the reliability of end-of-day marks that traders use to value their positions. Our evidence suggests that the price deviations from expected market valuations are significantly larger and more volatile than previously assumed. Overall, the results presented here improve our understanding of the drivers of liquidity and are important for many applications in OTC markets, in general.

A firm’s current leverage ratio is one of the core characteristics of credit quality used in statistical default prediction models. Based on the capital structure literature, which shows that leverage is mean-reverting to a target leverage, we forecast future leverage ratios and include them in the set of default risk drivers. An out-of-sample analysis of default predictions from a hazard model reveals that the discriminative power increases substantially when leverage forecasts are included. We further document that credit ratings contain information beyond the one contained in standard variables but that this information is unrelated to forecasts of leverage ratios.

This paper examines the intensity of competition in 65 national banking industries. Country-level dynamic panel estimates of the persistence of bank profit are reported and compared. Persistence of bank profit is interpreted as an indicator of the intensity of competition, and as such is found to be consistent with traditional structure-based and conduct-based competition indicators. Persistence is negatively related to the rate of growth in GDP per capita, and positively related to the size of entry barriers. Persistence tends to be weaker, and competition stronger, in countries where institutional development is more advanced and external governance mechanisms are strong.

We use fractionally-integrated time-series models to investigate the joint dynamics of equity trading volume and volatility. Bollerslev and Jubinski (1999) show that volume and volatility have a similar degree of fractional integration, and they argue that this evidence supports a long-run view of the mixture-of-distributions hypothesis. We examine this issue using more precise volatility estimates obtained using high-frequency returns (i.e., realized volatilities). Our results indicate that volume and volatility both display long memory, but we can reject the hypothesis that the two series share a common order of fractional integration for a fifth of the firms in our sample. Moreover, we find a strong correlation between the innovations to volume and volatility, which suggests that trading volume can be used to obtain more precise estimates of daily volatility for cases in which high-frequency returns are unavailable.

Why do some firms grow faster than others? Although various observed and unobserved aspects of firms have been suggested as potential drivers of firm heterogeneity, economists disagree sharply on the role of financial structure in influencing firm growth. In this paper, I use a sample of quoted and unquoted firms to show that the effect of financial structure on firm growth is statistically significant and quantitatively important. In the presence of external financing constraints, firms rely more on internal funds to finance growth, but the effect of internal financing on firm growth decreases with an increase in the firm’s access to an external bank credit facility. As the external financing constraint is alleviated, the firm relies less on internal funds and switches to external financing as the primary source of financing for its growth. This pattern of transition between internal and external financing is particularly pronounced in small unquoted firms (conditional on their survival). These results suggest a real effect of financial structure on growth via the channel of an external financing constraint.

This paper constructs a general equilibrium model of the interaction between financial intermediaries and financial markets that sheds some light on the short-term volatility of real interest rates. The main findings of the paper are as follows. When financial intermediaries issue contingent (non-contingent) liabilities, an increase in the consumers’ relative risk aversion coefficient decreases (increases) the interest rate. Also, the interest rate rises when capitalists are less risk-averse and financial intermediaries are hit by a liquidity shock.

This paper studies the impact of foreign bank entry on domestic firms’ access to bank credit using a within-country staggered geographic variation in the policy of foreign bank lending in China. The paper finds that after foreign bank entry profitable firms use more long-term bank loans; whereas firms with higher value of potential collateral do not. It also finds that non-state-owned firms become able to substitute some trade credit with long-term bank loans. The findings suggest that less opaque firms and non-state-owned firms benefit more from foreign bank entry and that collateral may only play a limited role in mitigating the problem of information asymmetry when creditors’ rights are not well protected in a host country.

In this paper we consider option pricing using multivariate models for asset returns. Specifically, we demonstrate the existence of an equivalent martingale measure, we characterize the risk neutral dynamics, and we provide a feasible way for pricing options in this framework. Our application confirms the importance of allowing for dynamic correlation, and it shows that accommodating correlation risk and modeling non-Gaussian features with multivariate mixtures of normals substantially changes the estimated option prices.

This paper examines the impact of foreign bank entry on China’s banking performance. An innovation in this study is that it constructs a spatially disaggregated measure of foreign bank presence, employing location data of foreign bank branches. Using this measure, the study examines the relationship between foreign bank presence and domestic banking performance in China. The results show that the spatially disaggregated measure not only improves the assessment of the impact of foreign bank presence but also resolves unexplained discrepancies found in existing empirical studies contingent on aggregate measures. Importantly, the study provides strong empirical evidence that foreign bank entry is supportive of a more competitive and efficient banking industry in China.