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Did the Banking Union reduce stress test information production? The role of negative financial stability spillovers

Journal of Banking & Finance 2026 190, 107769 open access
We examine the impact of the EU Banking Union on the information production of stress tests by exploiting the institutional shift in supervisory responsibility for significant banks to the European Central Bank (ECB) under the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM). We hypothesize that a centralized authority with both supervisory and financial stability mandates may reduce the informativeness of stress tests to mitigate negative spillovers, particularly potential threats to financial stability arising from disclosure. Our findings support this hypothesis, showing that the information production from stress tests declined following the introduction of the SSM. This reduction is primarily driven by weakly performing banks. We find no support for alternative explanations such as supervisory leniency, market learning, or the absence of an acute crisis.

Stakeholder-centric corporate misconduct and financing policies: A precautionary tale

Journal of Banking & Finance 2026 182, 107582 open access
We investigate how stakeholder-centric corporate misconduct (CM) influences firms’ financial policies. CM is associated with higher cash holdings and lower dividend payouts and debt financing. These effects are more pronounced in firms with stronger governance. We further show that high cash holdings in CM firms are associated with higher firm value and lower implied cost of capital. Firms that replace their CEOs following CM adopt more conservative financial policies. Our evidence supports the precautionary motive for cash holdings, indicating that such reserves are unlikely to result from agency conflicts or increased managerial discretion in CM firms.

Media reporting and asset pricing models

Journal of Banking & Finance 2026 182, 107596 open access
Recent literature shows that investors’ revealed beliefs often point to the use of comparatively simple valuation approaches or heuristics rather than complex models with several dimensions of systematic risk to price assets. Against this background, we comprehensively analyze how different stock-level performance measures affect media tone in firm-specific articles in several major markets. While the realized risk-adjusted abnormal returns of all tested models are positively related to media sentiment, the CAPM-adjusted return as well as the raw stock return have the strongest impact in direct comparisons. Overall, the results are most consistent with the conjecture that, on average, reporting tends to be influenced more by straightforward valuation approaches than by risk adjustments derived from multi-factor asset pricing models. Further largely supportive evidence comes from return decompositions, subsample tests, reporting about mutual funds as well as from survey results.

A hidden Markov model for statistical arbitrage in international crude oil futures markets

Journal of Banking & Finance 2026 188, 107714 open access
In this work, we study statistical arbitrage strategies in international crude oil futures markets. We analyse strategies that extend classical pairs trading strategies, considering the two benchmark crude oil futures (Brent and WTI) together with the newly introduced Shanghai crude oil futures. We document that the time series of these three futures prices are cointegrated and we model the resulting cointegration spread by a mean-reverting regime-switching process modulated by a hidden Markov chain. By relying on our stochastic model and applying online filter-based parameter estimators, we implement and test a number of statistical arbitrage strategies. Our analysis reveals that statistical arbitrage strategies involving the Shanghai crude oil futures are profitable even under conservative levels of transaction costs and over different time periods. On the contrary, statistical arbitrage strategies involving the three traditional crude oil futures (Brent, WTI, Dubai) do not yield profitable investment opportunities. Our findings suggest that the Shanghai futures, which has already become the benchmark for the Chinese domestic crude oil market, can be a valuable asset for international investors