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Offsetting the implicit incentives: Benefits of benchmarking in money management

Journal of Banking & Finance 2008 32(9), 1883-1893
Money managers are rewarded for increasing the value of assets under management. This gives a manager an implicit incentive to exploit the well-documented positive fund-flows to relative-performance relationship by manipulating her risk exposure. The misaligned incentives create potentially significant deviations of the manager’s policy from that desired by fund investors. In the context of a familiar continuous-time portfolio choice model, we demonstrate how a simple risk management practice that accounts for benchmarking can ameliorate the adverse effects of managerial incentives. Our results contrast with the conventional view that benchmarking a fund manager is not in the best interest of investors.

Financial prediction with constrained tail risk

Journal of Banking & Finance 2007 31(11), 3524-3538
A new class of asymmetric loss functions derived from the least absolute deviations or least squares loss with a constraint on the mean of one tail of the residual error distribution, is introduced for analyzing financial data. Motivated by risk management principles, the primary intent is to provide “cautious” forecasts under uncertainty. The net effect on fitted models is to shape the residuals so that on average only a prespecified proportion of predictions tend to fall above or below a desired threshold. The loss functions are reformulated as objective functions in the context of parameter estimation for linear regression models, and it is demonstrated how optimization can be implemented via linear programming. The method is a competitor of quantile regression, but is more flexible and broader in scope. An application is illustrated on prediction of NDX and SPX index returns data, while controlling the magnitude of a fraction of worst losses.