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Do constraints improve portfolio performance?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2000 24(8), 1253-1274
The discrete-time dynamic investment model, using only historical data in various asset-allocation settings, often produces significant abnormal returns. However, the model does not choose the diversified portfolios that theory suggests it should. Therefore, in this paper, we compare the investment policies and returns of the model with and without constraints on the mix of risky assets. The constraints lead to appreciably more diversification and less realized risk, but only at the cost of less realized return. Visual comparisons of compound return—standard deviation plots and statistical comparisons of Jensen’s alpha suggest that the reduction in return is not worth the reduction in risk. For more risk-averse investors, ex post utility and certainty equivalent returns suggest that it is. The results, however, illustrate the problems associated with using ex post utility to measure performance.

An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective

Journal of Banking & Finance 2000 24(10), 1651-1679
We examine the investment behavior of market participants within different international markets (i.e., US, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan), specifically with regard to their tendency to exhibit herd behavior. We find no evidence of herding on the part of market participants in the US and Hong Kong and partial evidence of herding in Japan. However, for South Korea and Taiwan, the two emerging markets in our sample, we document significant evidence of herding. The results are robust across various size-based portfolios and over time. Furthermore, macroeconomic information rather than firm-specific information tends to have a more significant impact on investor behavior in markets which exhibit herding. In all five markets, the rate of increase in security return dispersion as a function of the aggregate market return is higher in up market, relative to down market days. This is consistent with the directional asymmetry documented by McQueen et al. (1996) (McQueen, G., Pinegar, M.A., Thorley, S., 1996. Journal of Finance 51, 889–919).

Corporate control, bank risk taking, and the health of the banking industry

Journal of Banking & Finance 2000 24(8), 1383-1398
We present evidence that managerial shareholdings are an important determinant of bank risk-taking. Managerial shareholdings are positively related to total and firm specific risk in the late 1980s when banking was relatively less regulated and when the industry was under considerable financial stress. However, following legislation in 1989 and 1991 designed to reduce risk-taking and also reflecting substantial improvements in bank franchise value, managerial shareholdings and total and firm specific risk became negatively related in the early 1990s. In contrast, systematic risk was unrelated to managerial ownership in both periods.

Efficiency tests in the French derivatives market

Journal of Banking & Finance 2000 24(5), 787-807
The French derivatives market, the Marché à Terme International de France (MATIF) or the French International Futures and Options Exchange is one of the major derivatives markets in the world. The efficiency of four financial contracts traded on the MATIF-CAC40 Index Futures, ECU Bond Futures, National Bond Futures, and PIBOR 3-Month Futures are examined in this paper. Test results from serial correlations, unit root tests, and variance ratio tests provide overwhelming evidence that the random walk hypothesis cannot be rejected for these contracts.

Diversification and the value of internal capital markets: The case of tracking stock

Journal of Banking & Finance 2000 24(9), 1457-1490
Diversified firms trade at a discount relative to comparable portfolios of stand-alone firms. One explanation is that these firms have inefficient internal capital markets. We examine the link between firm value and the value of internal capital markets using a new form of corporate restructuring called tracking stock. We present a model that illustrates that the announcement effect of a tracking stock equity restructuring conveys information about the market’s assessment of the value of a firm’s internal capital market. We develop a measure of the profitability of the internal capital market, and we find a strong positive relation between it and tracking stock announcement effects, a finding consistent with our model.

Bank competition and ECB's monetary policy

Journal of Banking & Finance 2000 24(6), 967-983
In a model of oligopolistic competition in the banking sector, we analyse how the monetary policy rule chosen by the Central Bank can influence the incentive of banks to set high interest rates on loans over the business cycle. We exploit the basic model to investigate the potential impact of EMU implementation on collusion among banks. In particular, we consider the possible effects of the European Central Bank's policy criteria with regard to the cost of credit in national markets.

Price transmission dynamics between ADRs and their underlying foreign securities

Journal of Banking & Finance 2000 24(8), 1359-1382
This paper extends previous research by considering three pricing factors for American Depository Receipts (ADRs): the price of the underlying shares in the local currency, the relevant exchange rate, and the US market index. Using both a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with a cointegration constraint and a seemingly-unrelated regression (SUR) approach, we examine the relative importance of, and the speed of adjustment of ADR prices to, these underlying factors. Our results show that while the price of the underlying shares is most important, the exchange rate and the US market also have an impact on ADR prices. While the bulk of the shocks to the pricing factors are reflected in the ADRs within the same calendar day, there are indications that the adjustments are not completed until the following day. Curiously, the ADRs appear to initially overreact to the US market index but underreact to changes in underlying share prices and exchange rates.

A word of caution on calculating market-based minimum capital risk requirements

Journal of Banking & Finance 2000 24(10), 1557-1574 open access
This paper demonstrates that the use of GARCH-type models for the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements (MCRRs) may lead to the production of inaccurate and therefore inefficient capital requirements. We show that this inaccuracy stems from the fact that GARCH models typically overstate the degree of persistence in return volatility. A simple modification to the model is found to improve the accuracy of MCRR estimates in both back- and out-of-sample tests. Given that internal risk management models are currently in widespread usage in some parts of the world (most notably the USA), and will soon be permitted for EC banks and investment firms, we believe that our paper should serve as a valuable caution to risk management practitioners who are using, or intend to use this popular class of models.