The term structure of interest rates has occupied economists for many years. This is testimony to the importance of the term structure (or, equivalently, valuation operator) and to the difficulty of obtaining reliable estimates of it. Until recently, it was not possible to reconcile the theoretical existence of a multiplicity of valuation operators in an incomplete bond market and the empirical nonexistence of even a single one. MacKay and Prisman [Estimating valuation operators in incomplete market with noises: Can noise complete the market. Working paper, 1996] tackle this problem. In this paper, an amendment to and a generalization of their methodology is presented. The amendment preserves the linearity of valuation operators and allows use of efficient linear programming techniques. Further, it facilitates an admissible consideration of the puzzle of negative option prices embedded in bonds. The empirical results presented in this paper were obtained using data on extendable Government of Canada bonds. The results indicate that although the gap between the lowest and the highest prices assigned to a cash flow by different valuation operators is significant, it is not sufficient to resolve the above-mentioned puzzle.

Recently there have been a number of recommendations to increase the role of subordinated debt (SND) in satisfying bank capital requirements as a preferred means to discipline the risk-taking behavior of systemically important banks. One such proposal recommended using SND yield spreads as the triggers for mandatory supervisory action under prompt corrective action guidelines introduced in US banking legislation in the early 1990s. Currently such action is prompted by bank capital ratios. Evidence from previous research suggests that yield information may be a better predictor of bank problems. This paper empirically analyzes potential costs and benefits of using SND signals to trigger prompt corrective action.

The corporation is often viewed as a nexus of contracts. That view is slightly altered here. The corporation is viewed as a nexus of risks. The management of the corporation may then be thought of as the selection and management of the risks in a way that creates value. This I perspective is applied in a discussion of the three articles presented in this session.

This paper provides a review of developments in the area of risk management at both the firm level and the macro-economy. We review rationales regarding why firms choose to manage risk, as well as new developments in measuring and managing risk in a dynamic setting. We also consider current risk sharing arrangements in light of the theory regarding optimal risk sharing. The paper concludes with some suggestions for additional research that emphasizes the importance of incorporating market incompleteness in an equilibrium setting. We also discuss the role of incompleteness at the macro-level and speculate on how derivatives markets may influence macro-economic stabilization policy.

This paper examines the relative efficiency of UK credit unions. Radial and non-radial measures of input cost efficiency plus associated scale efficiency measures are computed for a selection of input output specifications. Both measures highlighted that UK credit unions have considerable scope for efficiency gains. It was mooted that the documented high levels of inefficiency may be indicative of the fact that credit unions, based on clearly defined and non-overlapping common bonds, are not in competition with each other for market share. Credit unions were also highlighted as suffering from a considerable degree of scale inefficiency with the majority of scale inefficient credit unions subject to decreasing returns to scale. The latter aspect highlights that the UK Government's goal of larger credit unions must be accompanied by greater regulatory freedom if inefficiency is to be avoided. One of the advantages of computing non-radial measures is that an insight into potential over- or under-expenditure on specific inputs can be obtained through a comparison of the non-radial measure of efficiency with the associated radial measure. Two interesting findings emerged, the first that UK credit unions over-spend on dividend payments and the second that they under-spend on labour costs.

This paper investigates the presence of global style factors in global equity investment. To this end, we apply Bayesian variable selection methods from the statistics literature to give guidance in the decision to include/omit factors in a global (linear factor) stock return model. Once we have accounted for country and sector, it is possible to see which style or styles best explains current asset returns. This study does not find compelling evidence for global styles as useful explanatory factors in a fixed parameter regression model, once country and sector have been accounted for.