Changes in short-term expected market returns (discount rates) were a significant driver behind the unprecedented fluctuations in equity markets during the first 4 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using option-based estimates of the expected market risk premium for 13 international markets, we find that approximately 40% of the change in market values during the COVID-19 pandemic can be attributed to changes in short-term discount rates. We also document sharply downward sloping term structures of equity risk premia at the start of the pandemic, consistent with Hasler and Marfè (2016). Finally, we document a significant increase in the correlation between index returns and changes in the short-term discount rate during the pandemic compared to the period before the pandemic.

This study defines the aggregate analyst recommendation for a country as the value-weighted average of all outstanding recommendations for shares of firms incorporated in that country. We show that country-level analyst recommendations predict international stock market returns. A trading strategy based on country-level recommendations yields an abnormal return of around 1% per month. Aggregate recommendations also help to predict changes in gross domestic product and aggregate earnings surprises. Overall, we find that country-level analyst recommendations provide useful information to predict future aggregate cash flows and associated market returns across different countries.

This study examines changes in domestic liquidity after cross-listing in the United States. Our liquidity measures are based on intraday data from domestic markets for a large sample of firms that cross-list in the United States and for a matched sample of firms that do not cross-list. We find that unadjusted liquidity significantly improves after cross-listing. However, after controlling for contemporaneous changes in liquidity for a matched sample of firms that do not cross-list, there is no evidence of improvements in domestic liquidity due to cross-listing. Our results offer no support for the bonding hypothesis, or for the hypothesis that cross-listing improves domestic liquidity because of increased intermarket competition and additional order flow.

This paper investigates the use of undisclosed limit orders on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). Our findings suggest that undisclosed limit orders are used to reduce the option value of limit orders. We find no evidence that undisclosed limit orders are more frequently used by informed traders than disclosed limit orders. The effects of recent changes in undisclosed order regulation are also examined. We find that the enhancement in pre-trade transparency, through tightening the undisclosed order regulation in October 1994, resulted in a significant decline in trading volume. The impact of the second regulation change in October 1996, which further tightened undisclosed order regulation, resulted in a less significant trading volume reduction.

We identify and analyze a sample of publicly traded Chinese firms that issued loan guarantees to their related parties (usually the controlling block holders), thereby expropriating wealth from minority shareholders. Our results show that the issuance of related guarantees is less likely at smaller firms, at more profitable firms and at firms with higher growth prospects. We also find that the identity and ownership of block holders affect the likelihood of expropriation. In addition, we use this sample to provide new evidence on the relation between tunneling and proxies for firm value and financial performance. We find that Tobin’s Q, ROA and dividend yield are significantly lower, and that leverage is significantly higher, at firms that issued related guarantees.

This paper examines execution costs and the impact of trade size for stock index futures using price-volume transaction data from the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange. Consistent with Subrahmanyam [Rev. Financ. Stud. 4 (1991) 17] we find that effective half spreads in the stock index futures market are small compared to stock markets, and that trades in stock index futures have only a small permanent price impact. This result is important as it helps to better understand the success of equity index products such as index futures and Exchange Traded Funds. We also find that there is no asymmetry in the post-trade price reaction between purchases and sales for stock index futures across various trade sizes. This result is consistent with the conjecture in Chan and Lakonishok [J. Financ. Econ. 33 (1993) 173] that the asymmetry surrounding block trades in stock markets is due to the high cost of short selling and the general reluctance of traders to short sell on stock markets.

Analysis of shareholdings reveals that corporate directors generate positive alpha when they hold board interlocked stocks, where they are not an insider but a current co-board member is. In contrast, directors do not outperform when they hold inside stocks or other stocks unconnected to the board network. Analysis of trades shows that directors outperform when they buy or sell their own company's stock as insiders. They also outperform when they buy interlocked stocks. Results are similar for trades made before firm-specific information events. We also find limited support for the hypothesis that industry familiarity improves performance.