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Sovereign risk and the impact of crisis: Evidence from Latin America

Journal of Banking & Finance 2017 77, 328-350 open access
We utilize the default by Argentina in 2001 and the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, as natural experiments, to monitor the complex interactions between sovereign bonds when subjected to endogenous and exogenous shocks. By forming pairs of Latin American sovereign bonds, bundled into similar maturity class, the analysis highlights the complex nature of risk shifting, and the temporal nature of the volatility transmission and sharing mechanisms in the lead up to, and after, a crisis period. The results show that shorter maturity groups and longer maturity groups behave in fundamentally different ways in terms of volatility transmission, while one or two leading countries act as regional benchmarks. The dynamics are consistent with temporal but segmented investor preferences, with the arrival of crisis contributing to a breakdown in the previous relationships. In addition, there is additional economic benefit from utilizing knowledge of the volatility structure underlying the historic transmission channels to improve the portfolio outcomes of market participants.

An analysis of price discovery from panel data models of CDS and equity returns

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 41, 167-177 open access
We propose a panel data model of price discovery. We find that the stock market contributes to price discovery in most sectors while the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market contributes to price discovery in only a few sectors. We discover that in sectors where both the stock market and the CDS market contribute to price discovery, it is the stock market that dominates the price discovery process. When we consider investment grade stocks, the importance of the CDS market in price discovery improves but the stock market still dominates the price discovery process. The results for different sizes of stocks generally suggest that both markets are important for price discovery but it is the stock market that dominates. We also find that while the price discovery process was affected by the 2007 global financial crisis, the stock market still dominated the price discovery process. Finally, in an economic significance analysis, we show that investors in the CDS market are able to make relatively more profits from a forecasting model that takes into account price discovery compared to a model that simply ignores the role of price discovery.